Kentucky Derby: 2 Weeks Out

Just thirteen days from today, the Kentucky Derby will be almost set to go off at historic Churchill Downs.  Before then, there is so much to sort through from the odds, to the workouts, to the health of each horse.  Just last week, it was announced that Cupid would not make the trip to Kentucky but will sit at least the Derby.  This propelled Mo Tom, winner of the LeComte Stakes, into the 20th and final Derby qualifying spot.  This scratch, although early in the preceding weeks to Run for the Roses, changes the outlook of the race.  It exchanges a frontrunner, with great speed, with a closer, with outstanding closing speed.  he question now becomes how will the pace settle out.  This is because originally, I thought that there could be a heated speed duel up front between Danzing Candy and Cupid.  Now, it is up to Danzing Candy and maybe Outwork to push the pace for closers to have a shot. 

Another reason the scratch is important is for the favorite Nyquist.  Nyquist will be toward the front and therefore will not want a strong opening half mile.  We also know that Mario Gutierrez is smart enough that Nyquist will not lead the pace unless it is uncommonly slow.  For the closers, they demand a fast opening half mile, somewhere less than 47:00.  This is important for Exaggerator, second choice prospectively, Mo Tom, decent contender, Suddenbreakingnews, similar, and Mor Spirit, another talented horse.  Pace this year will be incredibly important because many decent contenders are closer where as in the past two years specifically, the favorites congregated in the top quarter after about a half mile. 

The odds place Nyquist between a 3-1 and a 4-1 morning line favorite.  This is similar to Orb in 2013, Lookin' At Lucky in 2010, and Dialed In in 2011.  The only variables that will affect his odds will be the post position draw on Wednesday, May 4th.  If Nyquist gets a rail post position, it will be more on the 4-1 odds where as a gate between three and 18 will put him at 7-2 or 3-1. 

The real questions arise if somehow if Nyquist scratches from the Derby.  Being the clear favorite, the odds would be completely shaken up by this occurrence.  Many do not consider this possibility, but Eskendereya in 2010 would have been the clear favorite and in 2009, I Want Revenge was the 3-1 morning line favorite.  In 2011, Uncle Mo, second choice, was also scratched and in 2014, Hoppertunity was also scratched as the second choice.  It is possible that it could happen again and if that is the case, it will be one of the most wide open derbies ever. 

As you can see, there is much to take into account for the Kentucky Derby and there are very different perspectives that prove one thing or another, post position, weather history, etc.  These will all just make people more confused but hopefully more fascinated on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.   

Super Saturday in Horse Racing

Today is the day we will start to see the favorites for next month's Kentucky Derby make their way to the top of the odds board.  Three races will decide today those that will bear much responsibility next month in making the most exciting two minutes in sports truly that.  The Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby should all be exciting for many reasons.  For today, one could be the weather as Lexington is expected to have a cold afternoon, Santa Anita has a 90% chance of rain and New York will have rain sleet or snow as well.  These conditions will make it very interesting to test the horses as well as the distance and the other contenders as well.  Old and new faces will battle it out for a place in history. 

Wood Memorial

The first race to be held today is the Wood Memorial over a mile and an eighth at Aqueduct in New York.  Over the years, this race has brought many Derby contenders and winners, into the spotlight.  Although no winner of the Wood has worn the roses since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.  No winner has come from the Wood since Funny Cide in 2003.  Many people point that this race has not produced winners and gripe, but it has not only produced numerous favorites in this century, but has had unfair treatment in that one must throw out two of those winners who could have easily won the Derby and should have.  Eskendereya and I Want Revenge would have been the favorites for the Roes by a lot.  For whatever reason, it did not happen though and we must keep searching.  This year, the Wood posts no firm favorite.  Shagaf will go off as the favorite with Outwork and Matt King Cole not far behind.  This race is so unpredictable it will be so much fun to watch.  I do not know what to expect from Matt King Cole because I cannot find the race that he won a month ago.  He is 3-1 on the morning line and will probably go to the lead.  Outwork I like in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I'm not sue of the contenders in that race especially with the uncharacteristic Brody's Cause who did not show his true talent.  Shagaf has similar issues with his Gotham win.  Predicting this race will be difficult. 

1. Outwork

2. Matt King Cole

3. Shagaf

Bluegrass Stakes

The Bluegrass boasts ten contenders.  Last year, the first Bluegrass on grass in a while, propelled Carpe Diem on tot the Derby as a contenders who fizzled to finish seventh. This year, the race is also a toss up between one of three or four contenders.  Brody's Cause will do much better than in the Tampa Bay Derby and has a win over this track.  Zulu looked impressive against Mohaymen but after the Florida Derby, that race looks less impressive.  In a field with 14 entries, it is fine for a horse like My Man Sam to break from the far outside because he will get to the back without much problem he is 10-1.  Donegal Moon could also make a play but has not faced high competition.  Star Hill could also hit the board.  In a race like this also, look for a long shot to hit the board. 

1. Zulu

2. My Man Sam

3. Brody's Cause

Santa Anita Derby

The least wide-open race, this horse looks as though it will be between only two horses with one more who could make a play.  Mor Spirit looked good coming back in the San Felipe to take second and was a contender for a while.  Owned by the same owners of One Lucky Dane last year who did not get to the starting gates due to injury and they are also the same owners of Eskendereya.  Could this be their horse?  Danzing Candy also looked good in the San Felipe and will go to the lead without a doubt.  He could definitely lead wire to wire in the factored rain.  Rain is the biggest competition for these young and relatively untested horses. I think the race will come at the stretch with Mor Spirit coming back from the pack and Danzing Candy trying to hold on.  The last horse to consider is Smokey's Image.  He was 6-6 coming into the San Felipe but did not go on.  the question is whether that was just a bump and he will be back in full force today or whether that were his true colors.   I think he will fire back today but probably will not win. 

1. Mor Spirit

2. Danzing Candy

3. Smokey Image

Glorida Derby Preview

Today is perhaps one of the most pivotal days on the Kentucky Derby trail.  It will almost certainly set up the favorite in next months Kentucky Derby and should, hopefully, be an entertaining race to watch. The obvious two horses are Nyquist, unbeaten, and Mohaymen, another horse with the same record.  These present a very interesting options for favorites in the Derby.  Personally, I like Mohaymen far more than Nyquist.  I think he has benefitted from smaller fields and shorter distnces. Looking at his pedigree, nothing strikes me as a Derby horse.  I then clearly think Mohaymen will win the Florida Derby and most likely will be the favorite in the Run for the Roses.  In a relatively weak field, Nyquist will come in second, but don't be surprised if he comes in third.  Both will head along to Louisville next month.  Whether or not Mohaymen being the favorite in the Derby is justified will have to be figured out but in my opinion, he has not even tested by a lot of horses or a top caliber horse either.  We will get some answers to that today.