Just thirteen days from today, the Kentucky Derby will be almost set to go off at historic Churchill Downs. Before then, there is so much to sort through from the odds, to the workouts, to the health of each horse. Just last week, it was announced that Cupid would not make the trip to Kentucky but will sit at least the Derby. This propelled Mo Tom, winner of the LeComte Stakes, into the 20th and final Derby qualifying spot. This scratch, although early in the preceding weeks to Run for the Roses, changes the outlook of the race. It exchanges a frontrunner, with great speed, with a closer, with outstanding closing speed. he question now becomes how will the pace settle out. This is because originally, I thought that there could be a heated speed duel up front between Danzing Candy and Cupid. Now, it is up to Danzing Candy and maybe Outwork to push the pace for closers to have a shot.
Another reason the scratch is important is for the favorite Nyquist. Nyquist will be toward the front and therefore will not want a strong opening half mile. We also know that Mario Gutierrez is smart enough that Nyquist will not lead the pace unless it is uncommonly slow. For the closers, they demand a fast opening half mile, somewhere less than 47:00. This is important for Exaggerator, second choice prospectively, Mo Tom, decent contender, Suddenbreakingnews, similar, and Mor Spirit, another talented horse. Pace this year will be incredibly important because many decent contenders are closer where as in the past two years specifically, the favorites congregated in the top quarter after about a half mile.
The odds place Nyquist between a 3-1 and a 4-1 morning line favorite. This is similar to Orb in 2013, Lookin' At Lucky in 2010, and Dialed In in 2011. The only variables that will affect his odds will be the post position draw on Wednesday, May 4th. If Nyquist gets a rail post position, it will be more on the 4-1 odds where as a gate between three and 18 will put him at 7-2 or 3-1.
The real questions arise if somehow if Nyquist scratches from the Derby. Being the clear favorite, the odds would be completely shaken up by this occurrence. Many do not consider this possibility, but Eskendereya in 2010 would have been the clear favorite and in 2009, I Want Revenge was the 3-1 morning line favorite. In 2011, Uncle Mo, second choice, was also scratched and in 2014, Hoppertunity was also scratched as the second choice. It is possible that it could happen again and if that is the case, it will be one of the most wide open derbies ever.
As you can see, there is much to take into account for the Kentucky Derby and there are very different perspectives that prove one thing or another, post position, weather history, etc. These will all just make people more confused but hopefully more fascinated on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
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