2016 Preakness Stakes Preview

2016 Preakness Stakes Preview

The 2016 Kentucky Derby did not exactly go the way that I thought it would.  I did not anticipate that Nyquist was going to get the distance as easily as he did and I also did not anticipate he would be able to stay with the rigorous pace set by Danzing Candy.  The Preakness is now upon us and everyone suddenly hopped on the Nyquist bandwagon.  Better than odds on favorite and expected to stay below even odds at race time, he is thought of as a superhorse.  Maybe it is the eye test that he has not passed from me yet but at the very least, I am not convinced he is as good as people seem to believe.  There are new horses, weather and a short turn around, all of which, make me more hesitant to pick Nyquist as the winner of the Preakness.  As such, it is a very hard race to predict and many variables may have a say. 

Overview

There are certain variables that do actually go Nyquist's way in this race.  The first is that his performance in the Derby was longer than the Preakness distance is.  If he made the mile and a quarter, he can make it a sixteenth shorter.  He is mature, and he has shown he is looking good in preparation, of course his connections would never say otherwise.  He also has less competition.  A few factoss which do not go his way are the short turn around just two weeks which only three other horses have to endure.  He also had everything his way in the Derby and the possibility of a trip similar in the Preakness is unlikely.  The weather seems like it will be either an off track or a sloppy track as Pimlico will get caught in a rainstorm in the morning and early afternoon.  The only off track he raced on was in the Florida Derby, which he won but not impressively against horses like Majesto and Fellowship, the latter or which is competing on Saturday.  As we know, Exaggerator is very good inn off track and sloppy track situations, dominating in the Santa Anita Derby.  There are new shooters and new variables which, to me, make it less clear than some are expecting. 

Analysis

1. Cherry Wine-This grey colt attempted a run in the Kentucky Derby but was unable to because of the lack of points and that is not a very good sign for a horse who cannot make it into a 20 horse field  Good connections and in a field of only 11, he has at least a shot in the Preakness. 

2. Uncle Lino-Another colt who could not make it into the Derby, he ran a third in the Santa Anita Derby on a sloppy track, but he also came back three weeks about in the California Chrome to win by a length.  He ran a shorter distance but still won against some early contenders on the Derby trail.  In the Preakness, however, he seems to be overmatched. 

3. Nyquist-The obvious favorite, and winner of the Kentucky Derby in the fastest Derby since 2003.  He certainly can make the distance and will be a major contender, no doubt hitting the board.  Call it an American Pharoah hangover or some other prejudice, but I am not completely convinced he will win as so many others are.  He should be the favorite and heavily because he has proven himself time and time again.  As shown above, he does have certain aspects pulling for him and against him.  Favorites are generally very good in the Preakness, in the past two years, 2012, 2010, 2009-2007, Barbaro's fateful trip, 2005-2001.  But also as mentioned above, he has things working against him. 

4. Awesome Speed-This horse  does have awesome speed, for a period of time.  Unfortunately, not for the needed 1 mile and 3/16.  he will make the lead and may pull Nyquist a bit quicker.  He won the Tesio, a huge prep for local horses, but he won because of a disqualification.  He is unlikely to win but could hit the bottom of the board but definitely won't win. 

5. Exaggerator-Off track, definitely a plus, also he has been getting closer and closer to Nyquist in his latest starts We shall see if he can do it in the Preakness tomorrow.  He is definitely a contender, especially if the weather turns out the way it is expected to.  However, Derby runner-ups, do not fair well in the Preakness, and have a very low win percentage.  He is a major contender and will make a run toward the end. 

6. Lani-Japanese colt who is very troubled on and off the track.  He is definitely bred for long distance running but is not as talented as many of the horses in this field.  The upside for him is that he is doing much better than he was leading up to the Derby. 

7.  Collected-Collected looked good in the Lexington Stakes, of course against lesser competition, but has good connections and could challenge for the early lead as well.  He may have some more stamina than more speed and will likely take over the lead midway around the turn if Nyquist hasn't done it by then. 

8. Laoban-Huge longshot, has yet to win a race and will definitely not in the Preakness, he paced the Bluegrass Stakes but finished fourth.  He will also be yet another horse, to go to the lead out of the gate and we will see how long he can last on the lead.  With the talent and other speed in the field, it probably will not be very long. 

9. Abiding Star-He is five for five in 2016, but against no name competition.  He won on the lead at just over a mile two weeks ago.  His short layoff, his complications with the spread of an infection, and less than two length victory against nobodies, make him a long, long shot. 

10. Fellowship-If you like Nyquist, than fellowship must be pretty good as well.  He lost to Nyquist in the Florida Derby by only a handful of lengths but did not head for the Derby.  He ran fourth however in the Pat Day Mile which is not a great sign for this colt. 

11. Stradivari- A little known horse, Stradivari will likely go to the post as the third choice, but he is very much alive as a competitor.  He has had a near five week layoff after a glorified workout of a near 15 length victory.  It was against lesser competition, but he was racing against Pinson, a Ramsey owned colt who was highly thought of by the owner and nearly ran in the Bluegrass.  He had zero difficulty and if pressure was applied, he would have romped like Secretariat.  We shall see about competition tomorrow, but do not discount this new shooter.  Since new shooters do not fair great, people discount many of them.  However, most new shooters are horses who failed ot qualify for the Derby, not ones who purposefully bypassed the Derby such as this colt.  Social Inclusion in 2014, lost the Wood Memorial a month before the Preakness, Tesio winners usually have some play and Bernardini romped in 2006, he too had just three starts coming in.  Stradivari is a very alive contender and should be overlooked at your own risk. 

Prediction

There are different predictions I have.  Each has three different endings.  They all start with Laoban in the lead, Awesome Speed close, with Collected next.  Nyquist will tuck into fourth or fifth with Abiding Star somewhere in the early pack.  Nyquist may spot the vanguard a couple of lengths.  Stradivari and John Velasquez will then stay on the outside of Nyquist and keep him close.  Exaggerator will do the same from behind and Fellowship,  Cherry Wine and Lani will sit off the pace.  Now we diverge.  Nyquist will make his move heading into the far turn, as the Preakness is shorter and has less room to maneuver than Churchill Downs.  The early pace will drop and the true race will begin:

Option 1:  Even Odds

Nyquist kicks away while Stradivari stays with him  around and into the stretch.  Nyquist, emboldened by his big move and not having difficulty with the distance, he kicks away from the lightly raced and inexperienced Stradivari while Exaggerator makes a similar run as he did in the Derby, coming up just short of Nyquist at the wire. 

1. Nyquist

2. Exaggerator

3. Stradivari

4. Fellowship

Option 2: 3-1

Nyquist kicks away from the pack and Stradivari, like in the previous prediction, cannot stay with him.  Being an off track and getting better seemingly with every race, Exaggerator makes a sweeping move such as that in the Preakness and passes Nyuist with a sixteenth left.  Pulling away and winning by a couple of lengths.  The pace for this would be faster and the closer of Fellowship and Cherry Wine would make late runs. 

1. Exaggerator

2. Nyquist

3. Cherry Wine

4. Fellowship

 Option 3: 7-1

Nyquist makes his move and Stradivari stays with him on the outside.  He stays with Nyquist around the far turn and is as good as he looked at Keenland a month ago.  This time, John Velasquez needs Stradivari to push himself and the horse responds as lightly raced and completely rested, he blows past Nyquist at the top of the stretch and wins by a lot.  I think Stradivari will either perform superbly or lose period.  Not much in between.  Devastated, Nyquist will droop a little out of the top three.  Exaggerator will make his run along with Fellowship. 

1. Stradivari

2. Exaggerator

3. Fellowship

4. Nyquist

Option 4: 7-1

Who knows?  It is horse racing after all, anything can happen.   

Full Kentucky Derby Preview

The Race is finally here.  The 142nd Kentucky Derby is here and this race is much more interesting and much more competitive than the odds make it seem.  As I am writing this, Nyquist is the overwhelming favorite at 2-1.  I do believe that Nyquist is the decisive favorite, however, 2-1 is far too high odds.  Not to mention that I do not think that he will be able to win.  This race sets up so interesting because of the dynamic that the field has.  Many questions and factors will affect the race, pace, post positions are interesting this year, and weather as the forecast calls for skies to become cloudy and a possibility of rain.  These variables will be more important this year with the diversity of horses and the variables that affect the other variables. 

Post Positions

I will show the post positions full when I make my predictions below but there are some post positions I want to keep my eye on.  The closers are down along the inside in the main gate while the speed is toward the outside.  How will this affect the race?  Well this opens the possibility of a speed duel into play as horses who tend to be near the lead see other horses passing them.  This is also an advantage for Gun Runner (5), who will be able to get near lead and save ground because there is no speed around him.  Mohaymen and Nyquist break next to each other and while Nyquist likes to be near the lead, Mohaymen has been training very hard and may show more early speed than expected.  On another note, throw out the 17 post for Mor Spirit, it does not affect the race in any way. 

Pace

Many believe that the pace will be slow but as I alluded to in the first and second paragraph, there could easily be a pace duel coming from the outside of the gate.  If it is faster than 46 seconds for a half mile, I give nobody within five lengths possibility of winning.  If one looks at the prep races, the half mile paces were very fast from some horses in the field.  Outwork following Matt King Cole in the Wood Memorial went fast and Danzing Candy went very fast in the Santa Anita Derby.  With the speed duel and the speed of Danzing Candy, he could pull horses to their Kentucky Derby doom. 

Analysis

1. Trojan Nation-Down on the inside in post one, horses crashing in in front of him, has never even won a race yet, a miracle that he even made it to the Derby and his connections will just enjoy the experience. 

2. Suddenbreakingnews-I very much like this horse and his closing kick is consistent.  He will be able to save ground with his post position and will drop back before making a late run.  There are a lot of closers and some wont get through, who knows. 

3. Creator-Another horse who comes from behind, improving horse for Steve Asmussen, he will also come from the back.  In looking at the Arkansas Derby, if the stretch was a touch longer, Suddenbreakingnews probably could have gotten up to win. 

4. Mo Tom-Consistently getting into trouble, we do not really know how good he could be without bad trips, but there is little chance he will get a better trip in a 20 horse field.  Someone will make it through the stretch to contend but will it be him?

5. Gun Runner-Winning the big competitions at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana, he is a good horse that has been training well at Churchill Downs and will get a really nice spot.  He will need to improve his speed to win, but his training suggests that he could have improved. 

6. My Man Sam-Really nice horse who is lightly raced especially in stakes competition, having run in one, My Man Sam is another late closer, but he is a bit further out, could help when making a run. 

7. Oscar Nominated-It would be the perfect story if 80 year old Ken Ramsey's $200,000 risk will pay off with this horse, but realistically, he won a slow Spiral and is breaking next to Lani, a wild horse from Japan, an interesting horse to include in a Superfecta pick. 

8. Lani-Interesting horse from Japan, with an apparently expert jockey, wild and will use up a lot of energy and may refuse to fire on race day, who knows, but even a really good race by this horse will not be enough to let him win. 

\9. Destin-A horse who won the Tampa Bay Derby when Brody's Cause did not fire, it was also eight weeks ago.  Breaking next to Lani, makes it even tougher.  There are also reports that he may not be as healthy as his connections may have liked, I would doubt it. 

10. Whitmore-Never underestimate Victor Espinoza, the winner last year on American Pharoah, a colt that consistently fires but never is able to break through, good pick fro the back-half of the Superfecta. 

11. Exaggerator-Especially if there is rain tomorrow, this horse will get a lot of play at the betting windows.  He has never been able to beat Nyquist in three tries and will have to navigate at the end of the race.  Many people like this horse but I am not quite convinced about his talent. 

12. Tom's Ready-Another horse from GMB Racing, but the B-Horse of the two, finished well in the Louisiana Derby but if his stable-mate had not gotten caught up in the stretch, he would finish third. 

13. Nyquist-The favorite, and deservingly, he is 7 for 7 and is a nice looking course.  He has tactical speed and uses it well.  Many point to his Breeders' Cup victory but there are more horses, higher stakes and more mature horses.  Good Florida Derby but only beat Majesto by a few lengths.  Majesto is a horse I do not think is all to good either which does not make me feel great about Nyquist.  The least I can say is that 2-1 is way to high.  He deserves 9-2 maybe 4-1 as the favorite. 

14. Mohaymen-Nyquist's main competition in the Florida Derby before not firing.  He has trained super at Churchill Downs, maybe too fast and could push the pace along with the original pace setters.  He will improve tomorrow, but will it be enough in a 20 horse field? 

15. Outwork-In the auxiliary gate, solid speed horse but ran a very slow Wood Memorial against poor competitions, yet on a sloppy track.  Uncle Mo son along with Mo Tom and Nyquist, he will be on the pace but does not have the burst to get to the finish line first. 

16. Shagaf-Currently, enormous odds, and for a reason, poor Wood Memorial which was not even very good, little competition and not really tested.  Mohaymen, the stable mate will have a much better shot for the owners of Shagaf. 

17. Mor Spirit-Really good horse, love the pedigree and love the connections for this horse.  Looking to avenge his father Eskendereya and could very well do that.  Had a rough pace to work with in the Santa Anita Derby and the longer distance will only make it easier for his victory. 

18. Majesto-Either he is much better than we thought and will be close to winning, or Nyquist is not as good as we thought.  I am willing to bet, literally, on the latter.  He has little chance to win but has a descent post position.       

19. Brody's Cause-He had to navigate a large field in the Bluegrass but did have a nice pace to work off of.  He did not fire in the Tampa Bay Derby but if he had, his odds would be in low single-digits.  As I am throwing that race out, he is definitely a contender. 

20. Danzing Candy-If he flies out of the gate, there is no chance of a victory, if he slows the pace, he could pull a San Felipe and hold off to win.  With the closers in a fast pace and Nyquist, Mohaymen and Gun Runner in a slow pace, Danzing Candy is in a tough position. 

Prediction

I think that Danzing Candy will go to the lead and Nyquist will sit just off of him but inside of Mohaymen and Outwork.  Mario Gutierrez, will try to navigate him to the outside as the race progresses.  Gun Runner will save ground along the rail but close to the race with many other backing off the pace especially if it is fast.  I think the half mile will be somewhere around 46.8 seconds maybe a bit slower possibly but that is good enough for all the horses to still contend.  As the field tightens around the far turn, I think Nyquist will make his move and he will take over the lead with about three furlongs to go.  At that point, the closers will kick it into gear and Gun Runner will move with Nyquist.  At the top of the stretch, Nyquist will have the lead but Gun Runner will contend.  Mor Spirit will kick from the back of the path along with a wide run from Suddenbreakingnews.  Mo Tom will get caught up in trouble again and Exaggerator will get caught up in falling horses.  I think Mor Spirit will kick away and win by about two lengths with Gun Runner in Second and Brody's Cause in third.  Suddenbreakingnews will make a late run to be fourth.   This will get the first victory for the number 17 post and will break the trend of favorites winning the Kentucky Derby.  It will not happen this year as the top three choices as of right now, will not hit the board.  On another note, look at Suddenbreakingnews, Mo Tom, Exaggerator and after so many favorites, how about a huge longshot, Oscar Nominated for Ken Ramsey. 

1. Mor Spirit

2. Gun Runner

3. Brody's Cause

4. Suddenbreakingnews