2016 Preakness Stakes Preview
The 2016 Kentucky Derby did not exactly go the way that I thought it would. I did not anticipate that Nyquist was going to get the distance as easily as he did and I also did not anticipate he would be able to stay with the rigorous pace set by Danzing Candy. The Preakness is now upon us and everyone suddenly hopped on the Nyquist bandwagon. Better than odds on favorite and expected to stay below even odds at race time, he is thought of as a superhorse. Maybe it is the eye test that he has not passed from me yet but at the very least, I am not convinced he is as good as people seem to believe. There are new horses, weather and a short turn around, all of which, make me more hesitant to pick Nyquist as the winner of the Preakness. As such, it is a very hard race to predict and many variables may have a say.
Overview
There are certain variables that do actually go Nyquist's way in this race. The first is that his performance in the Derby was longer than the Preakness distance is. If he made the mile and a quarter, he can make it a sixteenth shorter. He is mature, and he has shown he is looking good in preparation, of course his connections would never say otherwise. He also has less competition. A few factoss which do not go his way are the short turn around just two weeks which only three other horses have to endure. He also had everything his way in the Derby and the possibility of a trip similar in the Preakness is unlikely. The weather seems like it will be either an off track or a sloppy track as Pimlico will get caught in a rainstorm in the morning and early afternoon. The only off track he raced on was in the Florida Derby, which he won but not impressively against horses like Majesto and Fellowship, the latter or which is competing on Saturday. As we know, Exaggerator is very good inn off track and sloppy track situations, dominating in the Santa Anita Derby. There are new shooters and new variables which, to me, make it less clear than some are expecting.
Analysis
1. Cherry Wine-This grey colt attempted a run in the Kentucky Derby but was unable to because of the lack of points and that is not a very good sign for a horse who cannot make it into a 20 horse field Good connections and in a field of only 11, he has at least a shot in the Preakness.
2. Uncle Lino-Another colt who could not make it into the Derby, he ran a third in the Santa Anita Derby on a sloppy track, but he also came back three weeks about in the California Chrome to win by a length. He ran a shorter distance but still won against some early contenders on the Derby trail. In the Preakness, however, he seems to be overmatched.
3. Nyquist-The obvious favorite, and winner of the Kentucky Derby in the fastest Derby since 2003. He certainly can make the distance and will be a major contender, no doubt hitting the board. Call it an American Pharoah hangover or some other prejudice, but I am not completely convinced he will win as so many others are. He should be the favorite and heavily because he has proven himself time and time again. As shown above, he does have certain aspects pulling for him and against him. Favorites are generally very good in the Preakness, in the past two years, 2012, 2010, 2009-2007, Barbaro's fateful trip, 2005-2001. But also as mentioned above, he has things working against him.
4. Awesome Speed-This horse does have awesome speed, for a period of time. Unfortunately, not for the needed 1 mile and 3/16. he will make the lead and may pull Nyquist a bit quicker. He won the Tesio, a huge prep for local horses, but he won because of a disqualification. He is unlikely to win but could hit the bottom of the board but definitely won't win.
5. Exaggerator-Off track, definitely a plus, also he has been getting closer and closer to Nyquist in his latest starts We shall see if he can do it in the Preakness tomorrow. He is definitely a contender, especially if the weather turns out the way it is expected to. However, Derby runner-ups, do not fair well in the Preakness, and have a very low win percentage. He is a major contender and will make a run toward the end.
6. Lani-Japanese colt who is very troubled on and off the track. He is definitely bred for long distance running but is not as talented as many of the horses in this field. The upside for him is that he is doing much better than he was leading up to the Derby.
7. Collected-Collected looked good in the Lexington Stakes, of course against lesser competition, but has good connections and could challenge for the early lead as well. He may have some more stamina than more speed and will likely take over the lead midway around the turn if Nyquist hasn't done it by then.
8. Laoban-Huge longshot, has yet to win a race and will definitely not in the Preakness, he paced the Bluegrass Stakes but finished fourth. He will also be yet another horse, to go to the lead out of the gate and we will see how long he can last on the lead. With the talent and other speed in the field, it probably will not be very long.
9. Abiding Star-He is five for five in 2016, but against no name competition. He won on the lead at just over a mile two weeks ago. His short layoff, his complications with the spread of an infection, and less than two length victory against nobodies, make him a long, long shot.
10. Fellowship-If you like Nyquist, than fellowship must be pretty good as well. He lost to Nyquist in the Florida Derby by only a handful of lengths but did not head for the Derby. He ran fourth however in the Pat Day Mile which is not a great sign for this colt.
11. Stradivari- A little known horse, Stradivari will likely go to the post as the third choice, but he is very much alive as a competitor. He has had a near five week layoff after a glorified workout of a near 15 length victory. It was against lesser competition, but he was racing against Pinson, a Ramsey owned colt who was highly thought of by the owner and nearly ran in the Bluegrass. He had zero difficulty and if pressure was applied, he would have romped like Secretariat. We shall see about competition tomorrow, but do not discount this new shooter. Since new shooters do not fair great, people discount many of them. However, most new shooters are horses who failed ot qualify for the Derby, not ones who purposefully bypassed the Derby such as this colt. Social Inclusion in 2014, lost the Wood Memorial a month before the Preakness, Tesio winners usually have some play and Bernardini romped in 2006, he too had just three starts coming in. Stradivari is a very alive contender and should be overlooked at your own risk.
Prediction
There are different predictions I have. Each has three different endings. They all start with Laoban in the lead, Awesome Speed close, with Collected next. Nyquist will tuck into fourth or fifth with Abiding Star somewhere in the early pack. Nyquist may spot the vanguard a couple of lengths. Stradivari and John Velasquez will then stay on the outside of Nyquist and keep him close. Exaggerator will do the same from behind and Fellowship, Cherry Wine and Lani will sit off the pace. Now we diverge. Nyquist will make his move heading into the far turn, as the Preakness is shorter and has less room to maneuver than Churchill Downs. The early pace will drop and the true race will begin:
Option 1: Even Odds
Nyquist kicks away while Stradivari stays with him around and into the stretch. Nyquist, emboldened by his big move and not having difficulty with the distance, he kicks away from the lightly raced and inexperienced Stradivari while Exaggerator makes a similar run as he did in the Derby, coming up just short of Nyquist at the wire.
1. Nyquist
2. Exaggerator
3. Stradivari
4. Fellowship
Option 2: 3-1
Nyquist kicks away from the pack and Stradivari, like in the previous prediction, cannot stay with him. Being an off track and getting better seemingly with every race, Exaggerator makes a sweeping move such as that in the Preakness and passes Nyuist with a sixteenth left. Pulling away and winning by a couple of lengths. The pace for this would be faster and the closer of Fellowship and Cherry Wine would make late runs.
1. Exaggerator
2. Nyquist
3. Cherry Wine
4. Fellowship
Option 3: 7-1
Nyquist makes his move and Stradivari stays with him on the outside. He stays with Nyquist around the far turn and is as good as he looked at Keenland a month ago. This time, John Velasquez needs Stradivari to push himself and the horse responds as lightly raced and completely rested, he blows past Nyquist at the top of the stretch and wins by a lot. I think Stradivari will either perform superbly or lose period. Not much in between. Devastated, Nyquist will droop a little out of the top three. Exaggerator will make his run along with Fellowship.
1. Stradivari
2. Exaggerator
3. Fellowship
4. Nyquist
Option 4: 7-1
Who knows? It is horse racing after all, anything can happen.
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