The Countdown Continues

We are now just 11 days away from answering the question of whether or not American Pharoah, the winner of the first two legs of the elusive Triple Crown, will in fact give the sport what it has been searching for, for nearly four decades.  Some people think that the Triple Crown is now, nearly unattainable.  This, however is not the case.  It just so happened that thirteen chances in a row have been squandered.  Many of the reasons for this can actually be explained.  I'll Have Another never got to race in the Belmont, Big Brown had a crack in his leg during the race, others were caused by jockey error, California Chrome last year, Silver Charm in 1997.  However, the biggest reason why the Triple Crown is a possibility this year is that it is yet another year.  No two years produce the same horses, who all feel the same at the same time.  The biggest question now is, is there any horse that is better than American Pharoah?  That question is what I think will decide the Triple Crown.  Bad fate and poor luck has had its run, its finally the time when the best horse wins the Belmont.  So, is American Pharoah the best horse in the field?  Well, many think so.  People say that if it has not happened in 13 straight tries, will it ever happen again.  My answer is this, no unanimous favorite had one the Derby for 19 years in a row.  Which means horses in similar positions, do not always win when they are supposed to either.  Good luck AP. 

Preakness Recap

WOW!  What a race.  The Preakness Stakes finished with historic context.  One of the few Preakness' run in the slop in Maryland.  As Gary Stevens said moments after the race, "It would take a super horse to beat what may bee a super horse."  That is the truth.  American Pharoah was much the best today in the Preakness.  He was suited well for the race, having won the Rebel Stakes in similar conditions.  He went for the lead from the start and never relinquished it.  He finished in a pitiful time of 1:58 but considering the sludge, he did very well pulling away in the stretch.  The question now becomes whether now, he can debunk his third curse in a row, a curse 37 years in the making.  Can American Pharoah win the Belmont, we shall see. 

 

 

Preakness Stakes Predictions



Introduction

Well here we are, two weeks after the Kentucky Derby and the focus, as it was in the Derby is on American Pharoah.  The highly touted son of Pioneerof the Nile is now the heavy favorite for the mile and 3/16 American classic.  Today at Pimlico, we will watch as American Pharoah tries to get 2/3 of the way to horse racings most cherished prize.  The Triple Crown. 

Trends

Many trends carry along with this Preakness Stakes.  The first trend is that the derby winner in the last ten years has only won the Preakness three times, despite, usually being the favorite.  However, if you look a little closer at the numbers, the reason becomes clear.  The derby winner in 2005, and 2009, were both 50-1 shots going into the Derby and neither were actually favored in the Preakness.  Of course we all remember about Barbaro, who most believe would have easily won the Preakness until tragedy struck.  Super Saver and Animal Kingdom, were also not very much favored in the De3rby or the Preakness.  There is really no answer, however, for why Street Sense or Orb could not win except for that there were just better horses that were ridden better.  The other trend that has recently been getting press is that in the last 50 years, a horse coming out of the post position one has only won the Preakness once.  Tabasco Cat back in 1994.  However, there are three distinct reasons why the number one post will not make a difference for the favorite American Pharoah.  The first, is that the field is much smaller than usual.  With only eight horses in the field, the smallest Preakness field since 2000, it will make it much easier for Victor Espinoza to maneuver through the field and work his magic atop American Pharoah.  Secondly, if the "curse" was debunked in 1994, it has then been 20 years since the curse technically started.  In those 20 years, the number one post has only housed either the Derby winner or the favorite, once.  This was in 2013.  Lastly, and the easiest reason why the number one post won't matter, is that American Pharoah is quite simply, the best horse in the race.  So for those three reasons, the curse is nothing that should be worried about for American Pharoah, he will do just fine.  

 

Analysis

1. American Pharoah-4/5

I have already spent a great deal of time discussing why I think this horse has a real shot at winning today.  He looked great in the Derby, and I think all the pieces are there.  Great horse, most important, great trainer in Bob Baffert, and he was lightly raced in his late two and early three year old campaign.  He has more energy now, I think than all other horses in the field today.  Not to mention he is the best horse in the field. 

 

2. Dortmund-7-2

Dortmund looked pretty good in the derby, he was able to hold on for the third spot behind American Pharoah and Firing Lind.  I think if he had not gone to the lead that he may have had more energy coming down the stretch.  A shorter distance may help him today. 

 

3. Mr. Z-20/1

In short, this horse needs a break.  He has competed literally for the last six months with no more than a three to four week layoff.  He will have almost no chance today to win, it would be hard because of his exhaustion, and he is no where near the best horse in the race. 

 

4. Danzig Moon-15/1

I really like Danzig Moon in the Derby.  He looked very good finishing fifth, and it was a good decision to run him again today.  He should finish higher, look for him to hit the board. 

 

5. Tale of Verve-30/1

A horse I know very little about, and at this point in the triple crown season, that is not a good thing.  From what I have read, he doe not deserve much of a shot today in the Preakness. 

 

6. Bodhisattva-20/1

Another horse that I don't know a whole lot about, he did win the Tesio Stakes this year, which makes him a bit of a contender, he won in frontrunner fashion and was not the favorite.  There was not much competition in that race.  He may go to the lead today. 

 

7. Divining Rod-12/1

The best of the newcomers, he won the Lexington at Keenland his last time out and he looked good kicking away for home.  With some top end speed, he should be able to sit off of the pace before making a good run.  He did not have much competition in the Lexington however which is concerning.  He is owned by the Jackson family whose last Preakness contender was the ill-fated Barbaro in 2006.

 

8. Firing Line-4/1

Starting at four to one, as of right now (11:30 est.) he is down to 2/1 which is where he deserves to be.  He looked great two weeks ago and it seems as though he should continue that.  He will definitely hit the board today and may give the Derby favorite a run for his money. 

 

Prediction

1. American Pharoah-He has the best connections, he had good training and looked spectacular in his last two starts.  It would be an enormous disappointment if he were to lose today.  Quite simply the best horse in this years crop of three year olds.  With so much talent, this year could be a year like the 2003 and 2004 Preakness with a large victory. 

 

2. Firing Line-Continuing their battle today, Gary Stevens may be the best jockey in the race.  He is undoubtedly the most experiences.  He will be able to bring Firing Line into second position as they cross the finish line. 

 

3. Danzig Moon-I think after the Derby, that Danzig Moon will finish third.  He can sit well off the pace before making a run which is rare in this race.  He closed well in the derby and held onto his fifth place. 

 

4. Dortmund-Dortmund is simply too good and has too long of legs not to at least get into the Superfecta today.  He looked good in the Derby but should not have gone to the lead in my opinion.  He may not have to today which may bode well for him. 





Strong Field for the Preakness

For the first time in years, the Preakness Stakes should be a very competitive race.  Recently, there have been seemingly more triple crown chances, and yet more squandered.  The reason for this, is sometimes the way that the Belmont sets up.  One of the other reasons is that when a very good horse does not perform very well in the Derby, skip the Preakness and head to the Belmont.  Usually, only one or two horses, last the entire Triple Crown trail.  The fact that a smaller number of horses compete for all three reasons, is less enjoyable as a spectator, because besides the Derby, the other two races, the Preakness especially, are cheapened by lesser horses.  In 2012, Union Rags, after a poor Derby, skipped the Preakness to run in the Belmont, in 2011, Dialed In, skipped the Belmont, he too was the Derby favorite.  Both the Derby and the Preakness winner skipped the Belmont in 2010, and so on.  Races are more enjoyable with better competition.  The rivalry between Secretariat and Sham, Affirmed and Alydar, Sunday Silence and Easy Goer, Silver Charm and Free House.  We, as fans do not get these rivalries anymore, because, unless you win the Derby, there is a good chance that you will skip one of the next two races.  Luckily, this year, it seems like it may turn around.  Not only, is American Pharoah running in the Preakness, so too is Firing Line, who finished second, Dortmund, who finished third, Danzig Moon who finished fifth, and a very good Competitive Edge, who missed the Derby trail de to injuries.  Although we are not sure if this is the official entered field, it is the reported field.  Hopefully, the Preakness will be as exciting as the Derby, which hasn't happened since 2007. 

American Pharoah Wins the Run for the Roses

We have had a long journey to this point.  From the Iroquois Stakes on September 6th, to May 2, 2015.  The Kentucky Derby just recently finished and it lived up to the hype.  This deep field proved that by producing a great run.  It was a surprising start, with Materiality not going to the lead.  Dortmund going to the lead may have been his undoing.  Firing Line looked very good and looked like he may have been about to take over the race down the stretch.  Victor Espinoza, though was undaunted.  He ran a great race atop the favorite American Pharoah.  He looked wide coming into the stretch, but quickly straitened out and as the two (Firing Line and American Pharaoh) went through the shadows, Espinoza let him run.  It was a great call by Larry Collmus, and a very enjoyable race to watch.  This blogger, also was correct in the Trifecta, with American Pharoah, Firing Line, and Dortmund.  American Pharoah proved the hype right, the curse wrong and now the only question that remains is whether this horse can continue his winning ways in the Preakness Stakes and maybe even the Triple Crown five weeks from now. 

 



Kentucky Derby Preview

Well the day has finally come.  After months of prep races, and speculation, it is finally time to see who the best three year old in the world.  Announcers have said that this is the best Derby field in some time.  So many stories going into the Derby and there's a lot to sort through. 

By the Numbers

1:59.2-The fastest Derby time ever, set by the great Secretariat in 1973
17-The only post position that has never won the Kentucky Derby.  The 19 post also never won until I'll Have Another won in 2012.  Can the longshot Mr. Z win from the 17 post?  We will find out. 

38-The number of years it has been since a horse has won the Derby, Preakness and Belmont.  The Triple Crown. 

5/2-The morning line odds for the favorite, American Pharoah.  The same as California Chrome last year. longest running as

141-The number of years that the Derby has been run in consecutive years, the oldest continuously held sports even in the United States. 

 

Analysis

The first thing to acknowledge is that two horses have been scratched.  International Star, the winner of the Louisiana Derby has been scratched, and the third pace in the Wood Memorial, El Kabeir has also been scratched.  Neither of these scratches should really affect the race a whole lot but it narrows the field. 

 

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho

With the number one post position, I look for Ocho Ocho Ocho to be looking for the lead out of the gate so that the he does not get boxed in like Lookin' at Lucky did in 2010.  He also had the lead in his last prep the Bluegrass Stakes.  I am not sure he will be able to et the distance and I believe that there are just way to many better horses to have Ocho Ocho Ocho on the board. 

 

2. Carpe Diem

At another inside post position, Carpe Diem will also have to show some early speed, it will help that two horses were scratched.  He should sit mid pack but I am not sure he has as much of a kick as he may need to make a solid run but he should end in the top 10 or higher. 

 

3. Materiality

I could be wrong but I do not like a horse that has only raced three time and never raced as a two year old to be put into a large, 18 horse field, he has enough talent to finish in the middle range of horses but not enough experience for me to have him hit the board. 

 

4. Tencendur

Very few people give Tencendur a chance but I really like this horse.  He took the lead in the Wood Memorial and held on for the second place finish.  I think that his odds are way to high for the talent he has.  H should finish in the top 10. 

 

5. Danzig Moon

A weak field in the Bluegrass propelled him to second place ahead of Ocho Ocho Ocho.  He did lose handily to Carpe Diem but he showed a good kick.  Crowded field and poor competition make him a longshot and should finish in the teens. 

 

6. Mubtaahij

Coming over from the UAE Derby is never easy to do.  May people like this colt because of his eight length victory.  However, the field was very poor and therefore he looked better than he probably is.  Also, making the overseas journey is hard so I think he may disappoint in the Derby today. 

 

7. El Kabeir

Scratched

 

8. Dortmund

Great victory in the Santa Anita Derby, against a solid field.  He has long, powerful strides and is the son of Big Brown, who won the Derby in 2008.  He will sit slightly off the leaders and will try to make a run.  He should be good enough to hit the board. 

 

9. Bolo

Some analysts think that Bolo is one of the best longshots.  I am not convinced.  He does not seem fast enough to me and I don't think he will make the distance very well.  He will finish toward the bottom for me. 

 

10. Firing Line

Starting at a 15-1 shot morning line yesterday, it is good that he has moved up to 8-1 currently.  If one likes Dortmund, then one must also like Firing Line.  He finished second by a head to Dortmund in the Robert Lewis, and a 15 length victory in the Sunland Derby make him a top contender, not to mention Gary Stevens, and a six week rest. 

 

11. NA (Stanford scratched before the deadline)

12. International Star

Scratched

 

13. Itsaknockout

Itsaknockout would be the ironic choice today, given the fight tonight, but he has not shown enough to make us think that he will win.  He only won the Fountain of Youth because Upstart was disqualified.  He was disappointing in the Florida Derby and I think that he will come up short yet again in the Derby.

 

14. Keen Ice

A late entry into the Derby, I don't think he has enough speed, or stamina to win today, but it is nice for his connections to realize the dream. 

 

15. Frosted

A poor field in the Wood Memorial helped Frosted.  The Wood, to me seemed like it was more about horses that disappoint.  Daredevil, proved that he did not have the distance, El Kabeir proved he was not as good as many thought  It is a shame that Far From Over was unable to run, I think he would have run away.  Frosted will sit to the mid-back of the race, I don't think he will make it to the front. 

 

16. War Story

He never got the right trips down at Gulfstream this winter.  International Star got the best trips and War Story showed he was good just by getting up to the place spot in those races.  He needs to show something today, he may surprise some people I think. 

 

17. Mr. Z

Although his odds are climbing, I am unconvinced that he is any 1good.  He is 1-14 lifetime, and I think that may show.  D. Wayne Lucas though has surprised people in the past.  I don't think there is enough talent for Mr. Z to come out on top. 

 

18. American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza won the Derby last year and it was in 2010 that a jockey won the Derby in back to back years.  He looked spectacular in the Arkansas Derby.  He had a great week of training, and he will definitely hit the board and there is a good chance that the Derby will be won by the Pharoah. 

 

18. Upstart

Upstart was second to Materiality in the Florida Derby and second to Itsaknockout in the Fountain of Youth.  He may be a little better than both of those horses but had a fever issue earlier in April, sitting at a mid-pack finish. 

 

19. Far Right

Far Right is a horse that I really like.  He ran fast at the finish in the Arkansas Derby.  He won the Southwest and with a race with top-end speed, he may make up ground.  He is my surprise to hit the board in the Derby. 

 

20. Frammento

Another surprise entry, Fremmento is currently at above 90-1 odds.  If he goes off at 91-1 or higher, and wins the Derby, he will be the longest shot ever.  He also needs a fast pace, but probably wont get there. 

 

Prediction



1. American Pharaoh-He looks great, he won by 8 lengths in the Arkansas Derby.  He has been compared to Seattle Slew and is expected to be great.  One timer at Churchill Downs, said that in his 35 years of timing, he never saw a horse as good as American Pharoah.  If that is true, he should win the Derby in stunning fashion. 

 

 

 

2. Firing Line-He has never been able to beat Dortmund, but I believe he finally will.  I think he will come up short in the Derby to American Pharoah.  He has rest and great wins.  American Pharaoh is just the best horse in the field. 

 

3. Dortmund-I do think that Dortmund is good, but his fractions are just not as good as they should be.  He has good lineage however.  I would not be surprised if he does win the draft.  He has good strides but his stable mate is better in my eyes. 

 

 

 

Far Right-I think that his odds do not reflect his talent.  He is a closer, and closers do well in the Derby.  He has a good kick and looked good in the Southwest.  He also looked good in the Arkansas Derby.  Of course, he did not look as good as the Arkansas Derby winner, American Pharoah.  









Top 10 Kentucky Derbies to Watch

1.

Finally, at the number one slot is the 2001 Kentucky Derby.  The lead up was that Point Given may have been the first triple crown winner in 23 years.  He went off at unbelievably low odds.  The pace that was set was the fastest in Derby history.  Songandaprayer set a :44.8 half mile and rounding the far turn the pace kept up.  Monarchos came down the stretch and stole the Derby in the second fastest time ever. 

 



Top 10 Kentucky Derbies to Watch

2.

At number two, we have the greatest racehorse of all time.  The 1973 Kentucky Derby showcased two of the greatest horses of all time.  Sham and Secretariat had a great rivalry and the Derby lived up to it.  Secretariat set the Derby record with a time of 1:59.2. 

 



Kentucky Oaks Predictions

Its the day before the Kentucky Derby, which means it is time for the fillies to be in the spotlight for the Kentucky Oaks.  This year there is a field of fourteen going to the post. The favorite is Stellar Wind and Birdatthewire.  They will race from the 12 and 13 post respectively.  I personally do not know quite as much about these horses as I do about the derby horses.  I think at the wire it will come down to Lovely Maria and Stellar Wind, I like both of these fillies, Stellar Wind impressed in the Santa Anita Oaks and Lovely Maria in the Ashland.  I think at the wire, the favorite will pull it out.  Watch Ocean Wave to be third and I'm a Chatterbox fourth. 

Stellar Wind

Lovely Maria

Top 10 Kentucky Derbies to Watch

3.

At number three is the 2007 Kentucky Derby featuring Street Sense.  This is the first Derby that I ever watched, and therefore has a special place among my favorite Derbies.  This Derby is great however, because of the call by the legendary, Tom Durkin.  Street Sense was 19th, out of 20 half way through the race, but as the field rounded the far turn, Street Sense rode the rail going from 19th, to first in short order.  He never lost the lead again. 

 



Top 10 Kentucky Derbies to Watch

4.

At number four in the top 10 is the 2004 Kentucky Derby.  Smarty Jones ridden by Stewart Elliott.  In the rain, Lion Heart took the lead into the stretch.  Smarty Jones, undaunted took the lead and pulled away.  Becoming the first undefeated winner of the Kentucky Derby since Seattle Slew.