Kentucky Derby Preview

Well the day has finally come.  After months of prep races, and speculation, it is finally time to see who the best three year old in the world.  Announcers have said that this is the best Derby field in some time.  So many stories going into the Derby and there's a lot to sort through. 

By the Numbers

1:59.2-The fastest Derby time ever, set by the great Secretariat in 1973
17-The only post position that has never won the Kentucky Derby.  The 19 post also never won until I'll Have Another won in 2012.  Can the longshot Mr. Z win from the 17 post?  We will find out. 

38-The number of years it has been since a horse has won the Derby, Preakness and Belmont.  The Triple Crown. 

5/2-The morning line odds for the favorite, American Pharoah.  The same as California Chrome last year. longest running as

141-The number of years that the Derby has been run in consecutive years, the oldest continuously held sports even in the United States. 

 

Analysis

The first thing to acknowledge is that two horses have been scratched.  International Star, the winner of the Louisiana Derby has been scratched, and the third pace in the Wood Memorial, El Kabeir has also been scratched.  Neither of these scratches should really affect the race a whole lot but it narrows the field. 

 

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho

With the number one post position, I look for Ocho Ocho Ocho to be looking for the lead out of the gate so that the he does not get boxed in like Lookin' at Lucky did in 2010.  He also had the lead in his last prep the Bluegrass Stakes.  I am not sure he will be able to et the distance and I believe that there are just way to many better horses to have Ocho Ocho Ocho on the board. 

 

2. Carpe Diem

At another inside post position, Carpe Diem will also have to show some early speed, it will help that two horses were scratched.  He should sit mid pack but I am not sure he has as much of a kick as he may need to make a solid run but he should end in the top 10 or higher. 

 

3. Materiality

I could be wrong but I do not like a horse that has only raced three time and never raced as a two year old to be put into a large, 18 horse field, he has enough talent to finish in the middle range of horses but not enough experience for me to have him hit the board. 

 

4. Tencendur

Very few people give Tencendur a chance but I really like this horse.  He took the lead in the Wood Memorial and held on for the second place finish.  I think that his odds are way to high for the talent he has.  H should finish in the top 10. 

 

5. Danzig Moon

A weak field in the Bluegrass propelled him to second place ahead of Ocho Ocho Ocho.  He did lose handily to Carpe Diem but he showed a good kick.  Crowded field and poor competition make him a longshot and should finish in the teens. 

 

6. Mubtaahij

Coming over from the UAE Derby is never easy to do.  May people like this colt because of his eight length victory.  However, the field was very poor and therefore he looked better than he probably is.  Also, making the overseas journey is hard so I think he may disappoint in the Derby today. 

 

7. El Kabeir

Scratched

 

8. Dortmund

Great victory in the Santa Anita Derby, against a solid field.  He has long, powerful strides and is the son of Big Brown, who won the Derby in 2008.  He will sit slightly off the leaders and will try to make a run.  He should be good enough to hit the board. 

 

9. Bolo

Some analysts think that Bolo is one of the best longshots.  I am not convinced.  He does not seem fast enough to me and I don't think he will make the distance very well.  He will finish toward the bottom for me. 

 

10. Firing Line

Starting at a 15-1 shot morning line yesterday, it is good that he has moved up to 8-1 currently.  If one likes Dortmund, then one must also like Firing Line.  He finished second by a head to Dortmund in the Robert Lewis, and a 15 length victory in the Sunland Derby make him a top contender, not to mention Gary Stevens, and a six week rest. 

 

11. NA (Stanford scratched before the deadline)

12. International Star

Scratched

 

13. Itsaknockout

Itsaknockout would be the ironic choice today, given the fight tonight, but he has not shown enough to make us think that he will win.  He only won the Fountain of Youth because Upstart was disqualified.  He was disappointing in the Florida Derby and I think that he will come up short yet again in the Derby.

 

14. Keen Ice

A late entry into the Derby, I don't think he has enough speed, or stamina to win today, but it is nice for his connections to realize the dream. 

 

15. Frosted

A poor field in the Wood Memorial helped Frosted.  The Wood, to me seemed like it was more about horses that disappoint.  Daredevil, proved that he did not have the distance, El Kabeir proved he was not as good as many thought  It is a shame that Far From Over was unable to run, I think he would have run away.  Frosted will sit to the mid-back of the race, I don't think he will make it to the front. 

 

16. War Story

He never got the right trips down at Gulfstream this winter.  International Star got the best trips and War Story showed he was good just by getting up to the place spot in those races.  He needs to show something today, he may surprise some people I think. 

 

17. Mr. Z

Although his odds are climbing, I am unconvinced that he is any 1good.  He is 1-14 lifetime, and I think that may show.  D. Wayne Lucas though has surprised people in the past.  I don't think there is enough talent for Mr. Z to come out on top. 

 

18. American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza won the Derby last year and it was in 2010 that a jockey won the Derby in back to back years.  He looked spectacular in the Arkansas Derby.  He had a great week of training, and he will definitely hit the board and there is a good chance that the Derby will be won by the Pharoah. 

 

18. Upstart

Upstart was second to Materiality in the Florida Derby and second to Itsaknockout in the Fountain of Youth.  He may be a little better than both of those horses but had a fever issue earlier in April, sitting at a mid-pack finish. 

 

19. Far Right

Far Right is a horse that I really like.  He ran fast at the finish in the Arkansas Derby.  He won the Southwest and with a race with top-end speed, he may make up ground.  He is my surprise to hit the board in the Derby. 

 

20. Frammento

Another surprise entry, Fremmento is currently at above 90-1 odds.  If he goes off at 91-1 or higher, and wins the Derby, he will be the longest shot ever.  He also needs a fast pace, but probably wont get there. 

 

Prediction



1. American Pharaoh-He looks great, he won by 8 lengths in the Arkansas Derby.  He has been compared to Seattle Slew and is expected to be great.  One timer at Churchill Downs, said that in his 35 years of timing, he never saw a horse as good as American Pharoah.  If that is true, he should win the Derby in stunning fashion. 

 

 

 

2. Firing Line-He has never been able to beat Dortmund, but I believe he finally will.  I think he will come up short in the Derby to American Pharoah.  He has rest and great wins.  American Pharaoh is just the best horse in the field. 

 

3. Dortmund-I do think that Dortmund is good, but his fractions are just not as good as they should be.  He has good lineage however.  I would not be surprised if he does win the draft.  He has good strides but his stable mate is better in my eyes. 

 

 

 

Far Right-I think that his odds do not reflect his talent.  He is a closer, and closers do well in the Derby.  He has a good kick and looked good in the Southwest.  He also looked good in the Arkansas Derby.  Of course, he did not look as good as the Arkansas Derby winner, American Pharoah.