Introduction
Well here we are, two weeks after the Kentucky Derby and the focus, as it was in the Derby is on American Pharoah. The highly touted son of Pioneerof the Nile is now the heavy favorite for the mile and 3/16 American classic. Today at Pimlico, we will watch as American Pharoah tries to get 2/3 of the way to horse racings most cherished prize. The Triple Crown.
Trends
Many trends carry along with this Preakness Stakes. The first trend is that the derby winner in the last ten years has only won the Preakness three times, despite, usually being the favorite. However, if you look a little closer at the numbers, the reason becomes clear. The derby winner in 2005, and 2009, were both 50-1 shots going into the Derby and neither were actually favored in the Preakness. Of course we all remember about Barbaro, who most believe would have easily won the Preakness until tragedy struck. Super Saver and Animal Kingdom, were also not very much favored in the De3rby or the Preakness. There is really no answer, however, for why Street Sense or Orb could not win except for that there were just better horses that were ridden better. The other trend that has recently been getting press is that in the last 50 years, a horse coming out of the post position one has only won the Preakness once. Tabasco Cat back in 1994. However, there are three distinct reasons why the number one post will not make a difference for the favorite American Pharoah. The first, is that the field is much smaller than usual. With only eight horses in the field, the smallest Preakness field since 2000, it will make it much easier for Victor Espinoza to maneuver through the field and work his magic atop American Pharoah. Secondly, if the "curse" was debunked in 1994, it has then been 20 years since the curse technically started. In those 20 years, the number one post has only housed either the Derby winner or the favorite, once. This was in 2013. Lastly, and the easiest reason why the number one post won't matter, is that American Pharoah is quite simply, the best horse in the race. So for those three reasons, the curse is nothing that should be worried about for American Pharoah, he will do just fine.
Analysis
1. American Pharoah-4/5
I have already spent a great deal of time discussing why I think this horse has a real shot at winning today. He looked great in the Derby, and I think all the pieces are there. Great horse, most important, great trainer in Bob Baffert, and he was lightly raced in his late two and early three year old campaign. He has more energy now, I think than all other horses in the field today. Not to mention he is the best horse in the field.
2. Dortmund-7-2
Dortmund looked pretty good in the derby, he was able to hold on for the third spot behind American Pharoah and Firing Lind. I think if he had not gone to the lead that he may have had more energy coming down the stretch. A shorter distance may help him today.
3. Mr. Z-20/1
In short, this horse needs a break. He has competed literally for the last six months with no more than a three to four week layoff. He will have almost no chance today to win, it would be hard because of his exhaustion, and he is no where near the best horse in the race.
4. Danzig Moon-15/1
I really like Danzig Moon in the Derby. He looked very good finishing fifth, and it was a good decision to run him again today. He should finish higher, look for him to hit the board.
5. Tale of Verve-30/1
A horse I know very little about, and at this point in the triple crown season, that is not a good thing. From what I have read, he doe not deserve much of a shot today in the Preakness.
6. Bodhisattva-20/1
Another horse that I don't know a whole lot about, he did win the Tesio Stakes this year, which makes him a bit of a contender, he won in frontrunner fashion and was not the favorite. There was not much competition in that race. He may go to the lead today.
7. Divining Rod-12/1
The best of the newcomers, he won the Lexington at Keenland his last time out and he looked good kicking away for home. With some top end speed, he should be able to sit off of the pace before making a good run. He did not have much competition in the Lexington however which is concerning. He is owned by the Jackson family whose last Preakness contender was the ill-fated Barbaro in 2006.
8. Firing Line-4/1
Starting at four to one, as of right now (11:30 est.) he is down to 2/1 which is where he deserves to be. He looked great two weeks ago and it seems as though he should continue that. He will definitely hit the board today and may give the Derby favorite a run for his money.
Prediction
1. American Pharoah-He has the best connections, he had good training and looked spectacular in his last two starts. It would be an enormous disappointment if he were to lose today. Quite simply the best horse in this years crop of three year olds. With so much talent, this year could be a year like the 2003 and 2004 Preakness with a large victory.
2. Firing Line-Continuing their battle today, Gary Stevens may be the best jockey in the race. He is undoubtedly the most experiences. He will be able to bring Firing Line into second position as they cross the finish line.
3. Danzig Moon-I think after the Derby, that Danzig Moon will finish third. He can sit well off the pace before making a run which is rare in this race. He closed well in the derby and held onto his fifth place.
4. Dortmund-Dortmund is simply too good and has too long of legs not to at least get into the Superfecta today. He looked good in the Derby but should not have gone to the lead in my opinion. He may not have to today which may bode well for him.
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