In Review of History

As we all know, American Pharoah became the first horse since Affirmed in 1978 to win the Triple Crown.  Ending a 3 year drought brought about by 13 previous horses who were unable to end the streak.  This, however, was not Spectacular Bid, Pleasant Colony, Alysheba or Sunday Silence's fault.  Altug none of these horses won the Triple Crown, it would have made the feat less special.  The streak in my estimation really started in the late 90's.  In 1997, Silver Charm arrived in Belmont, trying to stop the then 19 year streak of no Triple Crown.  However, he was defeated by a great ride for the Belmont winner Victory Gallop.  In 1998, Real Quiet had a chance to win the Triple Crown, however, he was not a truly special horse.  He lost by only a nose but he was not a great horse.  He did nothing much both before and after the Derby and Preakness.  In 1999, the third year in a row with a chance, Charismatic was brought to New York by D. Wayne Lucas with a chance to win thee Triple Crown.  However, the long trek of the Triple Crown crippled him down the stretch.  In 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus became the first favorite to win the Derby in about 20 years. But, he faltered in the Preakness.  Point Given was set to show his greatness in 2001, but a blistering pace in the Derby caused him to falter.  He proved his worth in the Preakness and Belmont.  In 2002, front running War Emblem won the first two legs of the Triple Crown, but was not versatile enough to win the Belmont after a poor start.  In 2003, a gelding gave it a try, and upset Bobby Frankel's two horses, Peace Rules and Empire Maker, in the Derby and won by nine lengths in the Preakness, but was too eager, going to the lead in the Belmont that undid his bid for a Triple Crown.  In 2004, it was the Philly Flyer, Smarty Jones, who put in a bid, he won the Derby impressively and romped to an 11 length victory in the Preakness but was too impatient and made his move too early at Belmont.  In 2005, Afleet Alex came close in the Derby and with dramatic flair won both the Preakness and the Belmont.  But a fast paced crowded Derby hurt his chances for the Triple Crown.  In 2006, Barbaro looked like a super horse until he shattered his leg just seconds after the start of the Belmont.  2007 did not have a super horse, it was made up of great races with different contenders.  2008, Big Brown gave horse racing hope once again.  His name seemed like that of a Triple crow winner, he won both the Derby and Preakness in impressive fashion.  But he just didn't have the stamina in the Belmont.  Three years would go by until another true contender, but once again, the duration of the Triple Crown knocked I'll Have Another out of the Triple Crown before the Belmont even happened.  In 2013, Orb was favored in all three Triple Crown races, and yet only won one of them.  California Chrome was the underdog horse from California, bred for next to nothing, and yet he won the first two legs of the Triple Crown as well.  He too did not have the stamina.  What I have laid out should show you not just the winners of the first two Triple Crown races, who faltered in the Belmont who are were at fault, it was all the "great" horses who weren't actually great.  Fusaichi Pegasus, Point Given, Orb.   I place just as much blame for the drought on these horses as I do on Smarty Jones, Big Brown and California Chrome.  Luckily, the drought has been ended by the horse with the misspelled name and the shortened tale who ended the 37 years of disappointment.   He truly was a great horse.  He deserves all the accolades and all the prizes. 

 



Triple Crown!

At last, American Pharoah has ended the long awaited 37 year drought with a scintillating performance in the Belmont Stakes.  He ran the sixth fasted Belmont ever, and ran the second fastest of the Triple Crown winners.  He won by 5 1/2 lengths and he looked splendid doing it.  A horse with a misspelled name, and a chewed off tail, ended the long wait for a Triple Crown.  There is not much more to be said.  It finally happened. 

 

  

Belmont takes Preview

Today is the day, everyone.  This is what people who follow the sport of horse racing look forward too every year.  Suffice it to say, this is a big deal.  American Pharoah looks to become the first Triple Crown champion since Affirmed in 1978.  He seeks to be one of just twelve horses in history to complete that fete.  Listening to the buzz this week, I haven't heard as much assured-confidence that American Pharoah would win the Belmont today.  I find this surprising.  Comparing the last two years, between California Chrome and American Pharoah, I see many differences.  In my opinion, last years crop of Triple Crown horses was a weak one.  The reason California Chrome was given the favorite in the Derby, was not because he was, as many thought, a superstar horse, it was because he was the only pretty good horse, in a race with no other pretty good horses.  This year, I feel it s the opposite.  There were so many good, solid contenders this year in both the Derby and the Preakness.  The fact that American Pharoah, not only won the first two races, but also won the latter by seven lengths.  I really do think he is the superstar horse.  I guess we shall see later today. 

 

 

The Race

1. Mubtaahij-I think that Mubtaahij will be the best contender facing American Pharoah today.  He has raced at longer distances, he has had a tough training schedule, and he is bred for the distance.  I just don't think that anyone will beat American Pharoah today, but he should hit the board. 

 

2. Tale of Verve-Tale of Verve was a surprise in the Preakness, but that I think was more because the two other "heavy-hitters" (Dortmund and Firing Line) did not like the wet track at Pinlico.  I think that he will show his true colors today.  Finishing off the board. 

 

3. Madefromlucky-Madefromlucky took a similar track that  Tonalist took last year coming into the Belmont.  The difference, he is not as good of a horse, and he has already been beaten by American Pharoah twice, in Arkansas.  Today should not be any different. 

 

4. Frammento-Frammento is another Nick Zito horse, the same trainer who has stopped Triple Crown hopes in both 2004 with Birdstone and in 2008 with Da'Tara.  He is a long shot and I have to feel like Nick Zito's luck with these types of horses, will run out today. 

 

5. American Pharoah-Well, here he is folks, American Pharoah sits at post five and looks for the Triple Crown.  He is fast and some people think that that could be an issue today.  His sire, however, gives me cause for hope.  His Grand-sire, Empire Maker, actually crushed the 2003 Triple Crown hopes of Funny Cide.  He is the best horse in the field and if he does not win, it will be because of something other than his talent. 

 

6. Frosted-Many people also think Frosted will prove to be a contender of American Pharoah.  I agree, his ending kick in the Derby was very good to finish fourth.  He seems like he could be the type of horse to get this distance. 

 

7. Keen Ice-Keen Ice is another longshot who is entered to be a Triple Crown crusher.  He could be, he did not have as bad of a finish as some experts predicted, but compared to the other horses in the race today, I don't see him hitting the board and I definitely don't see him winning today. 

 

8. Materiality-Handicappers are concerned about this horse coming out of the number eight post position.  Johnny Velasquez will be in the irons.  He will try to be on the lead and Victor Espinoza will have to decide whether to challenge or drop back, which could cause problems. 

 

Prediction

1. American Pharoah-I do think that at the end of the day today, American Pharoah will become the twelfth horse to win the Triple Crown.  I just think that at the end of the day, people will throw out different stats and trends but if a horse is truly great, which I think American Pharoah is, it should not matter. 

 

2. Mubtaahij-Mubtaahij is a horse who can easily get the distance and sitting off the pace, he should be able to pace horses coming down to the wire. 

 

3. Materiality-He will be the one going for the pace, early in the race.  It could become a pace duel which would be bad for both horses, but I think that something will change and Pharoah will get the pace and pull away to win. 

 

4. Frosted-Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, and ridden by Joel Rosario, who last year spoiled California Chrome's quest last year.  He will be a major contender. 

 

*-To be honest, part of this is my unbiased opinion, but part of this is also the fact that I would rather pick Pharoah and lose, than pick against him and win.  Go AP! 



Triple Crown Chance XIV

American Pharoah is the morning line favorite for the 2015 Belmont Stakes.  The question for me is why?  Although American Pharoah is the best horse in this years crop, and has proven it every race since last September.  The issue this week is different.  The Belmont Stakes often is not won by the best horse in the field.  It is won by the best horse on tat day who has the stamina.  Horses, in this decade, have been bread more for speed than stamina, the favorite has not won the Belmont Stakes since 2005 when Afleet Alex won.  So not only should a horse not want to be the favorite, the question remains why is American Pharoah the favorite.  13 horses have arrive at the Belmont in the last 37 years, none of them have won.  The handicappers making the odds should not look at the Belmont as yet another race, they should not just take into account the mile and a half distance of the race, but they need to handicap this race as if this one race was the entire Triple Crown, which it basically is.  All thirteen horses who have arrived at Belmont with a chance to make history have been the favorite, its about time that should not be the case.  Although there is no horse to put ahead of American Pharoah, he should be less than even odds against the field.  That of course is my opinion.  I, however, as are most horse racing fans, will be predicting a American Pharoah victory, because I would rather lose with him then win against him.  Go Pharoah Go!

Belmont Stakes Post Positions