Belmont takes Preview

Today is the day, everyone.  This is what people who follow the sport of horse racing look forward too every year.  Suffice it to say, this is a big deal.  American Pharoah looks to become the first Triple Crown champion since Affirmed in 1978.  He seeks to be one of just twelve horses in history to complete that fete.  Listening to the buzz this week, I haven't heard as much assured-confidence that American Pharoah would win the Belmont today.  I find this surprising.  Comparing the last two years, between California Chrome and American Pharoah, I see many differences.  In my opinion, last years crop of Triple Crown horses was a weak one.  The reason California Chrome was given the favorite in the Derby, was not because he was, as many thought, a superstar horse, it was because he was the only pretty good horse, in a race with no other pretty good horses.  This year, I feel it s the opposite.  There were so many good, solid contenders this year in both the Derby and the Preakness.  The fact that American Pharoah, not only won the first two races, but also won the latter by seven lengths.  I really do think he is the superstar horse.  I guess we shall see later today. 

 

 

The Race

1. Mubtaahij-I think that Mubtaahij will be the best contender facing American Pharoah today.  He has raced at longer distances, he has had a tough training schedule, and he is bred for the distance.  I just don't think that anyone will beat American Pharoah today, but he should hit the board. 

 

2. Tale of Verve-Tale of Verve was a surprise in the Preakness, but that I think was more because the two other "heavy-hitters" (Dortmund and Firing Line) did not like the wet track at Pinlico.  I think that he will show his true colors today.  Finishing off the board. 

 

3. Madefromlucky-Madefromlucky took a similar track that  Tonalist took last year coming into the Belmont.  The difference, he is not as good of a horse, and he has already been beaten by American Pharoah twice, in Arkansas.  Today should not be any different. 

 

4. Frammento-Frammento is another Nick Zito horse, the same trainer who has stopped Triple Crown hopes in both 2004 with Birdstone and in 2008 with Da'Tara.  He is a long shot and I have to feel like Nick Zito's luck with these types of horses, will run out today. 

 

5. American Pharoah-Well, here he is folks, American Pharoah sits at post five and looks for the Triple Crown.  He is fast and some people think that that could be an issue today.  His sire, however, gives me cause for hope.  His Grand-sire, Empire Maker, actually crushed the 2003 Triple Crown hopes of Funny Cide.  He is the best horse in the field and if he does not win, it will be because of something other than his talent. 

 

6. Frosted-Many people also think Frosted will prove to be a contender of American Pharoah.  I agree, his ending kick in the Derby was very good to finish fourth.  He seems like he could be the type of horse to get this distance. 

 

7. Keen Ice-Keen Ice is another longshot who is entered to be a Triple Crown crusher.  He could be, he did not have as bad of a finish as some experts predicted, but compared to the other horses in the race today, I don't see him hitting the board and I definitely don't see him winning today. 

 

8. Materiality-Handicappers are concerned about this horse coming out of the number eight post position.  Johnny Velasquez will be in the irons.  He will try to be on the lead and Victor Espinoza will have to decide whether to challenge or drop back, which could cause problems. 

 

Prediction

1. American Pharoah-I do think that at the end of the day today, American Pharoah will become the twelfth horse to win the Triple Crown.  I just think that at the end of the day, people will throw out different stats and trends but if a horse is truly great, which I think American Pharoah is, it should not matter. 

 

2. Mubtaahij-Mubtaahij is a horse who can easily get the distance and sitting off the pace, he should be able to pace horses coming down to the wire. 

 

3. Materiality-He will be the one going for the pace, early in the race.  It could become a pace duel which would be bad for both horses, but I think that something will change and Pharoah will get the pace and pull away to win. 

 

4. Frosted-Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, and ridden by Joel Rosario, who last year spoiled California Chrome's quest last year.  He will be a major contender. 

 

*-To be honest, part of this is my unbiased opinion, but part of this is also the fact that I would rather pick Pharoah and lose, than pick against him and win.  Go AP!