Previewing the Breeders Cup Juvenile

Just about a week and a half away from the 201 Breeder's Cup Championship and I for one am very excited.  While much of the hype is swirling around American Pharoah's return to racing after he was upset by Keen Ice in the Travers.  Although I am also looking forward to the Breeder's Cup Classic, my enthusiasm is credited mainly to the Sentient Jet Breeder's Cup Juvenile which should give horse racing fans a glimpse at possible contenders for next year's Kentucky Derby.  The distance is 1 1/16 miles, which is just three sixteenth shorter than the distance of the Derby.  Of course this formula has not always worked.  Only one Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner has ever won the Derby.  Street Sense in 2006/2007.  American Pharoah could have been the second but was scratched last year shortly before the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.  Sometimes, the Juvenile will produce numerous Kentucky Derby entrants.  In the 2011 Juvenile, nine of the thirteen entrants raced in the n for the Roses.  But, as I have said, it does not always work out that way.  In 2012 and 2013, there was a combined three Derby starters.  In 2014 there were three as well.  It is an unpredictable race.  The winners in the last three years did not even make the Derby starting gate.  Shanghai Bobby, New Year's Day and Texas Red.  What can we expect this year?

Nyquist will surely get some play as the Wynn Casino 2016 Kentucky Derby favorite at this point.  Followed by rival Swipe and newcomer from New York, Greenpointcrusader.  D. Wayne Lucas also is high on his colt Conquest Big E.  Of course Brody's Cause, winner of the Breeder's Futurity will also be looked upon as a betting favorite.  There are a lot of questions and very few answers.  Are any of these horses for real?  Will any of these horses reach the Kentucky Derby?  Do any have a chance to win the Derby?  Will Nyquist be able to go longer distances than he is bred for?  (Isn't this fun?)  In  short days, we will have all the answers

2016 Kentucky Derby Way Early Preview

Although it seems hard to believe, it is once again Kentucky Derby qualifying season and I, for one, am very excited to hear the different predictions and thoughts on the 2016 Kentucky Derby field.  We have already seen our first prep race, the Iroquois Stakes, and have our points leader in Cocked and Loaded.   Likewise, the Wynn Casino has come out with their current odds as to the Kentucky Derby winner, with Sail Ahoy on top at 25-1.  It is early of course to start looking at odds already, a number of horses who are expected to be in the Derby have yet to break their maiden or even compete.  Sail Ahoy is the son of 2006 Preakness Stakes winner, Bernardini.  His connections mirror that of 2013 Kentucky Derby winner, Orb.  These are all good signs, but we have yet to see these competitors fully.  I'll Have Another connections have the second choice at this point, Nyquist, son of Uncle Mo.  With American Pharoah's spotlight slowly fading, the questions emerge about who will take his place on the podium at the next Triple Crown race.  Eyes right now point to October 31st, and the Breeders Cup Juvenile for the true early favorite for the Run for the Roses at that will be the first time that all contenders face at this point in their racing careers.  I can't wait.      

American Pharoah Back in Action

As many people who follow horse racing know, last Sunday American Pharoah returned to racing after his stirring Triple Crown victory.  He looked great in his return, taking a commanding lead around the  turn at Monmouth Park in New Jersey.  He could have won by double-digits but was eased up early into the stretch and won by three, still completing the mile and an eighth William Hill Haskell Invitational in 1:47.95, which is impressive. Making it more impressive of course s the fact that he only really raced a mile and just cruised to the finish line in the last eight.  He may run again in the Travers Stakes before heading to the richest race in America, the Breeders' Cup Classic.  He is truly a special horse. 

Early Preview Kentucky Derby 2016

We are now just over a month past the historic Triple Crown victory by American Pharoah.  In most cases after a 37 year drought is ended, one should step back and wallow in the brilliance of a special horse.  I however, cannot do this.  I am just too excited to get back to business.  Over the coming months, I will post more about the Breeders Cup and a follow up on American Pharoah, currently being pointed toward the Haskell in early August.  I will also however be focusing especially on the Breeders Cup Juvenile, the winner of which is becomes the early favorite for the Run for the Roses.  As of now, there have been very few American Juvenile races this year, but there have ben some interesting horses.  Uncle Vinny, the son of Uncle Mo was the favorite in the Tremont, but finished off the board to Cocked and Loaded, son of Kentucky Derby contender Colonel John.  The connections that led I'll Have Another to the winners circle in 2012 are teaming up again with Found Money.  This Summer will not be the best racing of Juveniles but it will pick up in September, when the Derby points schedule begins with the Iroquois Stakes on September 5th.  The Frontrunner, in late September was the race that American Pharoah won in the fall, the Breeders Futurity and the Champagne will all be eyed as early predictors of the lineup for the Breeders Cup Juvenile and eventually the Kentucky Derby.   

In Review of History

As we all know, American Pharoah became the first horse since Affirmed in 1978 to win the Triple Crown.  Ending a 3 year drought brought about by 13 previous horses who were unable to end the streak.  This, however, was not Spectacular Bid, Pleasant Colony, Alysheba or Sunday Silence's fault.  Altug none of these horses won the Triple Crown, it would have made the feat less special.  The streak in my estimation really started in the late 90's.  In 1997, Silver Charm arrived in Belmont, trying to stop the then 19 year streak of no Triple Crown.  However, he was defeated by a great ride for the Belmont winner Victory Gallop.  In 1998, Real Quiet had a chance to win the Triple Crown, however, he was not a truly special horse.  He lost by only a nose but he was not a great horse.  He did nothing much both before and after the Derby and Preakness.  In 1999, the third year in a row with a chance, Charismatic was brought to New York by D. Wayne Lucas with a chance to win thee Triple Crown.  However, the long trek of the Triple Crown crippled him down the stretch.  In 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus became the first favorite to win the Derby in about 20 years. But, he faltered in the Preakness.  Point Given was set to show his greatness in 2001, but a blistering pace in the Derby caused him to falter.  He proved his worth in the Preakness and Belmont.  In 2002, front running War Emblem won the first two legs of the Triple Crown, but was not versatile enough to win the Belmont after a poor start.  In 2003, a gelding gave it a try, and upset Bobby Frankel's two horses, Peace Rules and Empire Maker, in the Derby and won by nine lengths in the Preakness, but was too eager, going to the lead in the Belmont that undid his bid for a Triple Crown.  In 2004, it was the Philly Flyer, Smarty Jones, who put in a bid, he won the Derby impressively and romped to an 11 length victory in the Preakness but was too impatient and made his move too early at Belmont.  In 2005, Afleet Alex came close in the Derby and with dramatic flair won both the Preakness and the Belmont.  But a fast paced crowded Derby hurt his chances for the Triple Crown.  In 2006, Barbaro looked like a super horse until he shattered his leg just seconds after the start of the Belmont.  2007 did not have a super horse, it was made up of great races with different contenders.  2008, Big Brown gave horse racing hope once again.  His name seemed like that of a Triple crow winner, he won both the Derby and Preakness in impressive fashion.  But he just didn't have the stamina in the Belmont.  Three years would go by until another true contender, but once again, the duration of the Triple Crown knocked I'll Have Another out of the Triple Crown before the Belmont even happened.  In 2013, Orb was favored in all three Triple Crown races, and yet only won one of them.  California Chrome was the underdog horse from California, bred for next to nothing, and yet he won the first two legs of the Triple Crown as well.  He too did not have the stamina.  What I have laid out should show you not just the winners of the first two Triple Crown races, who faltered in the Belmont who are were at fault, it was all the "great" horses who weren't actually great.  Fusaichi Pegasus, Point Given, Orb.   I place just as much blame for the drought on these horses as I do on Smarty Jones, Big Brown and California Chrome.  Luckily, the drought has been ended by the horse with the misspelled name and the shortened tale who ended the 37 years of disappointment.   He truly was a great horse.  He deserves all the accolades and all the prizes. 

 



Triple Crown!

At last, American Pharoah has ended the long awaited 37 year drought with a scintillating performance in the Belmont Stakes.  He ran the sixth fasted Belmont ever, and ran the second fastest of the Triple Crown winners.  He won by 5 1/2 lengths and he looked splendid doing it.  A horse with a misspelled name, and a chewed off tail, ended the long wait for a Triple Crown.  There is not much more to be said.  It finally happened. 

 

  

Belmont takes Preview

Today is the day, everyone.  This is what people who follow the sport of horse racing look forward too every year.  Suffice it to say, this is a big deal.  American Pharoah looks to become the first Triple Crown champion since Affirmed in 1978.  He seeks to be one of just twelve horses in history to complete that fete.  Listening to the buzz this week, I haven't heard as much assured-confidence that American Pharoah would win the Belmont today.  I find this surprising.  Comparing the last two years, between California Chrome and American Pharoah, I see many differences.  In my opinion, last years crop of Triple Crown horses was a weak one.  The reason California Chrome was given the favorite in the Derby, was not because he was, as many thought, a superstar horse, it was because he was the only pretty good horse, in a race with no other pretty good horses.  This year, I feel it s the opposite.  There were so many good, solid contenders this year in both the Derby and the Preakness.  The fact that American Pharoah, not only won the first two races, but also won the latter by seven lengths.  I really do think he is the superstar horse.  I guess we shall see later today. 

 

 

The Race

1. Mubtaahij-I think that Mubtaahij will be the best contender facing American Pharoah today.  He has raced at longer distances, he has had a tough training schedule, and he is bred for the distance.  I just don't think that anyone will beat American Pharoah today, but he should hit the board. 

 

2. Tale of Verve-Tale of Verve was a surprise in the Preakness, but that I think was more because the two other "heavy-hitters" (Dortmund and Firing Line) did not like the wet track at Pinlico.  I think that he will show his true colors today.  Finishing off the board. 

 

3. Madefromlucky-Madefromlucky took a similar track that  Tonalist took last year coming into the Belmont.  The difference, he is not as good of a horse, and he has already been beaten by American Pharoah twice, in Arkansas.  Today should not be any different. 

 

4. Frammento-Frammento is another Nick Zito horse, the same trainer who has stopped Triple Crown hopes in both 2004 with Birdstone and in 2008 with Da'Tara.  He is a long shot and I have to feel like Nick Zito's luck with these types of horses, will run out today. 

 

5. American Pharoah-Well, here he is folks, American Pharoah sits at post five and looks for the Triple Crown.  He is fast and some people think that that could be an issue today.  His sire, however, gives me cause for hope.  His Grand-sire, Empire Maker, actually crushed the 2003 Triple Crown hopes of Funny Cide.  He is the best horse in the field and if he does not win, it will be because of something other than his talent. 

 

6. Frosted-Many people also think Frosted will prove to be a contender of American Pharoah.  I agree, his ending kick in the Derby was very good to finish fourth.  He seems like he could be the type of horse to get this distance. 

 

7. Keen Ice-Keen Ice is another longshot who is entered to be a Triple Crown crusher.  He could be, he did not have as bad of a finish as some experts predicted, but compared to the other horses in the race today, I don't see him hitting the board and I definitely don't see him winning today. 

 

8. Materiality-Handicappers are concerned about this horse coming out of the number eight post position.  Johnny Velasquez will be in the irons.  He will try to be on the lead and Victor Espinoza will have to decide whether to challenge or drop back, which could cause problems. 

 

Prediction

1. American Pharoah-I do think that at the end of the day today, American Pharoah will become the twelfth horse to win the Triple Crown.  I just think that at the end of the day, people will throw out different stats and trends but if a horse is truly great, which I think American Pharoah is, it should not matter. 

 

2. Mubtaahij-Mubtaahij is a horse who can easily get the distance and sitting off the pace, he should be able to pace horses coming down to the wire. 

 

3. Materiality-He will be the one going for the pace, early in the race.  It could become a pace duel which would be bad for both horses, but I think that something will change and Pharoah will get the pace and pull away to win. 

 

4. Frosted-Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, and ridden by Joel Rosario, who last year spoiled California Chrome's quest last year.  He will be a major contender. 

 

*-To be honest, part of this is my unbiased opinion, but part of this is also the fact that I would rather pick Pharoah and lose, than pick against him and win.  Go AP! 



Triple Crown Chance XIV

American Pharoah is the morning line favorite for the 2015 Belmont Stakes.  The question for me is why?  Although American Pharoah is the best horse in this years crop, and has proven it every race since last September.  The issue this week is different.  The Belmont Stakes often is not won by the best horse in the field.  It is won by the best horse on tat day who has the stamina.  Horses, in this decade, have been bread more for speed than stamina, the favorite has not won the Belmont Stakes since 2005 when Afleet Alex won.  So not only should a horse not want to be the favorite, the question remains why is American Pharoah the favorite.  13 horses have arrive at the Belmont in the last 37 years, none of them have won.  The handicappers making the odds should not look at the Belmont as yet another race, they should not just take into account the mile and a half distance of the race, but they need to handicap this race as if this one race was the entire Triple Crown, which it basically is.  All thirteen horses who have arrived at Belmont with a chance to make history have been the favorite, its about time that should not be the case.  Although there is no horse to put ahead of American Pharoah, he should be less than even odds against the field.  That of course is my opinion.  I, however, as are most horse racing fans, will be predicting a American Pharoah victory, because I would rather lose with him then win against him.  Go Pharoah Go!

Belmont Stakes Post Positions

The Countdown Continues

We are now just 11 days away from answering the question of whether or not American Pharoah, the winner of the first two legs of the elusive Triple Crown, will in fact give the sport what it has been searching for, for nearly four decades.  Some people think that the Triple Crown is now, nearly unattainable.  This, however is not the case.  It just so happened that thirteen chances in a row have been squandered.  Many of the reasons for this can actually be explained.  I'll Have Another never got to race in the Belmont, Big Brown had a crack in his leg during the race, others were caused by jockey error, California Chrome last year, Silver Charm in 1997.  However, the biggest reason why the Triple Crown is a possibility this year is that it is yet another year.  No two years produce the same horses, who all feel the same at the same time.  The biggest question now is, is there any horse that is better than American Pharoah?  That question is what I think will decide the Triple Crown.  Bad fate and poor luck has had its run, its finally the time when the best horse wins the Belmont.  So, is American Pharoah the best horse in the field?  Well, many think so.  People say that if it has not happened in 13 straight tries, will it ever happen again.  My answer is this, no unanimous favorite had one the Derby for 19 years in a row.  Which means horses in similar positions, do not always win when they are supposed to either.  Good luck AP. 

Preakness Recap

WOW!  What a race.  The Preakness Stakes finished with historic context.  One of the few Preakness' run in the slop in Maryland.  As Gary Stevens said moments after the race, "It would take a super horse to beat what may bee a super horse."  That is the truth.  American Pharoah was much the best today in the Preakness.  He was suited well for the race, having won the Rebel Stakes in similar conditions.  He went for the lead from the start and never relinquished it.  He finished in a pitiful time of 1:58 but considering the sludge, he did very well pulling away in the stretch.  The question now becomes whether now, he can debunk his third curse in a row, a curse 37 years in the making.  Can American Pharoah win the Belmont, we shall see. 

 

 

Preakness Stakes Predictions



Introduction

Well here we are, two weeks after the Kentucky Derby and the focus, as it was in the Derby is on American Pharoah.  The highly touted son of Pioneerof the Nile is now the heavy favorite for the mile and 3/16 American classic.  Today at Pimlico, we will watch as American Pharoah tries to get 2/3 of the way to horse racings most cherished prize.  The Triple Crown. 

Trends

Many trends carry along with this Preakness Stakes.  The first trend is that the derby winner in the last ten years has only won the Preakness three times, despite, usually being the favorite.  However, if you look a little closer at the numbers, the reason becomes clear.  The derby winner in 2005, and 2009, were both 50-1 shots going into the Derby and neither were actually favored in the Preakness.  Of course we all remember about Barbaro, who most believe would have easily won the Preakness until tragedy struck.  Super Saver and Animal Kingdom, were also not very much favored in the De3rby or the Preakness.  There is really no answer, however, for why Street Sense or Orb could not win except for that there were just better horses that were ridden better.  The other trend that has recently been getting press is that in the last 50 years, a horse coming out of the post position one has only won the Preakness once.  Tabasco Cat back in 1994.  However, there are three distinct reasons why the number one post will not make a difference for the favorite American Pharoah.  The first, is that the field is much smaller than usual.  With only eight horses in the field, the smallest Preakness field since 2000, it will make it much easier for Victor Espinoza to maneuver through the field and work his magic atop American Pharoah.  Secondly, if the "curse" was debunked in 1994, it has then been 20 years since the curse technically started.  In those 20 years, the number one post has only housed either the Derby winner or the favorite, once.  This was in 2013.  Lastly, and the easiest reason why the number one post won't matter, is that American Pharoah is quite simply, the best horse in the race.  So for those three reasons, the curse is nothing that should be worried about for American Pharoah, he will do just fine.  

 

Analysis

1. American Pharoah-4/5

I have already spent a great deal of time discussing why I think this horse has a real shot at winning today.  He looked great in the Derby, and I think all the pieces are there.  Great horse, most important, great trainer in Bob Baffert, and he was lightly raced in his late two and early three year old campaign.  He has more energy now, I think than all other horses in the field today.  Not to mention he is the best horse in the field. 

 

2. Dortmund-7-2

Dortmund looked pretty good in the derby, he was able to hold on for the third spot behind American Pharoah and Firing Lind.  I think if he had not gone to the lead that he may have had more energy coming down the stretch.  A shorter distance may help him today. 

 

3. Mr. Z-20/1

In short, this horse needs a break.  He has competed literally for the last six months with no more than a three to four week layoff.  He will have almost no chance today to win, it would be hard because of his exhaustion, and he is no where near the best horse in the race. 

 

4. Danzig Moon-15/1

I really like Danzig Moon in the Derby.  He looked very good finishing fifth, and it was a good decision to run him again today.  He should finish higher, look for him to hit the board. 

 

5. Tale of Verve-30/1

A horse I know very little about, and at this point in the triple crown season, that is not a good thing.  From what I have read, he doe not deserve much of a shot today in the Preakness. 

 

6. Bodhisattva-20/1

Another horse that I don't know a whole lot about, he did win the Tesio Stakes this year, which makes him a bit of a contender, he won in frontrunner fashion and was not the favorite.  There was not much competition in that race.  He may go to the lead today. 

 

7. Divining Rod-12/1

The best of the newcomers, he won the Lexington at Keenland his last time out and he looked good kicking away for home.  With some top end speed, he should be able to sit off of the pace before making a good run.  He did not have much competition in the Lexington however which is concerning.  He is owned by the Jackson family whose last Preakness contender was the ill-fated Barbaro in 2006.

 

8. Firing Line-4/1

Starting at four to one, as of right now (11:30 est.) he is down to 2/1 which is where he deserves to be.  He looked great two weeks ago and it seems as though he should continue that.  He will definitely hit the board today and may give the Derby favorite a run for his money. 

 

Prediction

1. American Pharoah-He has the best connections, he had good training and looked spectacular in his last two starts.  It would be an enormous disappointment if he were to lose today.  Quite simply the best horse in this years crop of three year olds.  With so much talent, this year could be a year like the 2003 and 2004 Preakness with a large victory. 

 

2. Firing Line-Continuing their battle today, Gary Stevens may be the best jockey in the race.  He is undoubtedly the most experiences.  He will be able to bring Firing Line into second position as they cross the finish line. 

 

3. Danzig Moon-I think after the Derby, that Danzig Moon will finish third.  He can sit well off the pace before making a run which is rare in this race.  He closed well in the derby and held onto his fifth place. 

 

4. Dortmund-Dortmund is simply too good and has too long of legs not to at least get into the Superfecta today.  He looked good in the Derby but should not have gone to the lead in my opinion.  He may not have to today which may bode well for him. 





Strong Field for the Preakness

For the first time in years, the Preakness Stakes should be a very competitive race.  Recently, there have been seemingly more triple crown chances, and yet more squandered.  The reason for this, is sometimes the way that the Belmont sets up.  One of the other reasons is that when a very good horse does not perform very well in the Derby, skip the Preakness and head to the Belmont.  Usually, only one or two horses, last the entire Triple Crown trail.  The fact that a smaller number of horses compete for all three reasons, is less enjoyable as a spectator, because besides the Derby, the other two races, the Preakness especially, are cheapened by lesser horses.  In 2012, Union Rags, after a poor Derby, skipped the Preakness to run in the Belmont, in 2011, Dialed In, skipped the Belmont, he too was the Derby favorite.  Both the Derby and the Preakness winner skipped the Belmont in 2010, and so on.  Races are more enjoyable with better competition.  The rivalry between Secretariat and Sham, Affirmed and Alydar, Sunday Silence and Easy Goer, Silver Charm and Free House.  We, as fans do not get these rivalries anymore, because, unless you win the Derby, there is a good chance that you will skip one of the next two races.  Luckily, this year, it seems like it may turn around.  Not only, is American Pharoah running in the Preakness, so too is Firing Line, who finished second, Dortmund, who finished third, Danzig Moon who finished fifth, and a very good Competitive Edge, who missed the Derby trail de to injuries.  Although we are not sure if this is the official entered field, it is the reported field.  Hopefully, the Preakness will be as exciting as the Derby, which hasn't happened since 2007. 

American Pharoah Wins the Run for the Roses

We have had a long journey to this point.  From the Iroquois Stakes on September 6th, to May 2, 2015.  The Kentucky Derby just recently finished and it lived up to the hype.  This deep field proved that by producing a great run.  It was a surprising start, with Materiality not going to the lead.  Dortmund going to the lead may have been his undoing.  Firing Line looked very good and looked like he may have been about to take over the race down the stretch.  Victor Espinoza, though was undaunted.  He ran a great race atop the favorite American Pharoah.  He looked wide coming into the stretch, but quickly straitened out and as the two (Firing Line and American Pharaoh) went through the shadows, Espinoza let him run.  It was a great call by Larry Collmus, and a very enjoyable race to watch.  This blogger, also was correct in the Trifecta, with American Pharoah, Firing Line, and Dortmund.  American Pharoah proved the hype right, the curse wrong and now the only question that remains is whether this horse can continue his winning ways in the Preakness Stakes and maybe even the Triple Crown five weeks from now. 

 



Kentucky Derby Preview

Well the day has finally come.  After months of prep races, and speculation, it is finally time to see who the best three year old in the world.  Announcers have said that this is the best Derby field in some time.  So many stories going into the Derby and there's a lot to sort through. 

By the Numbers

1:59.2-The fastest Derby time ever, set by the great Secretariat in 1973
17-The only post position that has never won the Kentucky Derby.  The 19 post also never won until I'll Have Another won in 2012.  Can the longshot Mr. Z win from the 17 post?  We will find out. 

38-The number of years it has been since a horse has won the Derby, Preakness and Belmont.  The Triple Crown. 

5/2-The morning line odds for the favorite, American Pharoah.  The same as California Chrome last year. longest running as

141-The number of years that the Derby has been run in consecutive years, the oldest continuously held sports even in the United States. 

 

Analysis

The first thing to acknowledge is that two horses have been scratched.  International Star, the winner of the Louisiana Derby has been scratched, and the third pace in the Wood Memorial, El Kabeir has also been scratched.  Neither of these scratches should really affect the race a whole lot but it narrows the field. 

 

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho

With the number one post position, I look for Ocho Ocho Ocho to be looking for the lead out of the gate so that the he does not get boxed in like Lookin' at Lucky did in 2010.  He also had the lead in his last prep the Bluegrass Stakes.  I am not sure he will be able to et the distance and I believe that there are just way to many better horses to have Ocho Ocho Ocho on the board. 

 

2. Carpe Diem

At another inside post position, Carpe Diem will also have to show some early speed, it will help that two horses were scratched.  He should sit mid pack but I am not sure he has as much of a kick as he may need to make a solid run but he should end in the top 10 or higher. 

 

3. Materiality

I could be wrong but I do not like a horse that has only raced three time and never raced as a two year old to be put into a large, 18 horse field, he has enough talent to finish in the middle range of horses but not enough experience for me to have him hit the board. 

 

4. Tencendur

Very few people give Tencendur a chance but I really like this horse.  He took the lead in the Wood Memorial and held on for the second place finish.  I think that his odds are way to high for the talent he has.  H should finish in the top 10. 

 

5. Danzig Moon

A weak field in the Bluegrass propelled him to second place ahead of Ocho Ocho Ocho.  He did lose handily to Carpe Diem but he showed a good kick.  Crowded field and poor competition make him a longshot and should finish in the teens. 

 

6. Mubtaahij

Coming over from the UAE Derby is never easy to do.  May people like this colt because of his eight length victory.  However, the field was very poor and therefore he looked better than he probably is.  Also, making the overseas journey is hard so I think he may disappoint in the Derby today. 

 

7. El Kabeir

Scratched

 

8. Dortmund

Great victory in the Santa Anita Derby, against a solid field.  He has long, powerful strides and is the son of Big Brown, who won the Derby in 2008.  He will sit slightly off the leaders and will try to make a run.  He should be good enough to hit the board. 

 

9. Bolo

Some analysts think that Bolo is one of the best longshots.  I am not convinced.  He does not seem fast enough to me and I don't think he will make the distance very well.  He will finish toward the bottom for me. 

 

10. Firing Line

Starting at a 15-1 shot morning line yesterday, it is good that he has moved up to 8-1 currently.  If one likes Dortmund, then one must also like Firing Line.  He finished second by a head to Dortmund in the Robert Lewis, and a 15 length victory in the Sunland Derby make him a top contender, not to mention Gary Stevens, and a six week rest. 

 

11. NA (Stanford scratched before the deadline)

12. International Star

Scratched

 

13. Itsaknockout

Itsaknockout would be the ironic choice today, given the fight tonight, but he has not shown enough to make us think that he will win.  He only won the Fountain of Youth because Upstart was disqualified.  He was disappointing in the Florida Derby and I think that he will come up short yet again in the Derby.

 

14. Keen Ice

A late entry into the Derby, I don't think he has enough speed, or stamina to win today, but it is nice for his connections to realize the dream. 

 

15. Frosted

A poor field in the Wood Memorial helped Frosted.  The Wood, to me seemed like it was more about horses that disappoint.  Daredevil, proved that he did not have the distance, El Kabeir proved he was not as good as many thought  It is a shame that Far From Over was unable to run, I think he would have run away.  Frosted will sit to the mid-back of the race, I don't think he will make it to the front. 

 

16. War Story

He never got the right trips down at Gulfstream this winter.  International Star got the best trips and War Story showed he was good just by getting up to the place spot in those races.  He needs to show something today, he may surprise some people I think. 

 

17. Mr. Z

Although his odds are climbing, I am unconvinced that he is any 1good.  He is 1-14 lifetime, and I think that may show.  D. Wayne Lucas though has surprised people in the past.  I don't think there is enough talent for Mr. Z to come out on top. 

 

18. American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza won the Derby last year and it was in 2010 that a jockey won the Derby in back to back years.  He looked spectacular in the Arkansas Derby.  He had a great week of training, and he will definitely hit the board and there is a good chance that the Derby will be won by the Pharoah. 

 

18. Upstart

Upstart was second to Materiality in the Florida Derby and second to Itsaknockout in the Fountain of Youth.  He may be a little better than both of those horses but had a fever issue earlier in April, sitting at a mid-pack finish. 

 

19. Far Right

Far Right is a horse that I really like.  He ran fast at the finish in the Arkansas Derby.  He won the Southwest and with a race with top-end speed, he may make up ground.  He is my surprise to hit the board in the Derby. 

 

20. Frammento

Another surprise entry, Fremmento is currently at above 90-1 odds.  If he goes off at 91-1 or higher, and wins the Derby, he will be the longest shot ever.  He also needs a fast pace, but probably wont get there. 

 

Prediction



1. American Pharaoh-He looks great, he won by 8 lengths in the Arkansas Derby.  He has been compared to Seattle Slew and is expected to be great.  One timer at Churchill Downs, said that in his 35 years of timing, he never saw a horse as good as American Pharoah.  If that is true, he should win the Derby in stunning fashion. 

 

 

 

2. Firing Line-He has never been able to beat Dortmund, but I believe he finally will.  I think he will come up short in the Derby to American Pharoah.  He has rest and great wins.  American Pharaoh is just the best horse in the field. 

 

3. Dortmund-I do think that Dortmund is good, but his fractions are just not as good as they should be.  He has good lineage however.  I would not be surprised if he does win the draft.  He has good strides but his stable mate is better in my eyes. 

 

 

 

Far Right-I think that his odds do not reflect his talent.  He is a closer, and closers do well in the Derby.  He has a good kick and looked good in the Southwest.  He also looked good in the Arkansas Derby.  Of course, he did not look as good as the Arkansas Derby winner, American Pharoah.  









Top 10 Kentucky Derbies to Watch

1.

Finally, at the number one slot is the 2001 Kentucky Derby.  The lead up was that Point Given may have been the first triple crown winner in 23 years.  He went off at unbelievably low odds.  The pace that was set was the fastest in Derby history.  Songandaprayer set a :44.8 half mile and rounding the far turn the pace kept up.  Monarchos came down the stretch and stole the Derby in the second fastest time ever. 

 



Top 10 Kentucky Derbies to Watch

2.

At number two, we have the greatest racehorse of all time.  The 1973 Kentucky Derby showcased two of the greatest horses of all time.  Sham and Secretariat had a great rivalry and the Derby lived up to it.  Secretariat set the Derby record with a time of 1:59.2. 

 



Kentucky Oaks Predictions

Its the day before the Kentucky Derby, which means it is time for the fillies to be in the spotlight for the Kentucky Oaks.  This year there is a field of fourteen going to the post. The favorite is Stellar Wind and Birdatthewire.  They will race from the 12 and 13 post respectively.  I personally do not know quite as much about these horses as I do about the derby horses.  I think at the wire it will come down to Lovely Maria and Stellar Wind, I like both of these fillies, Stellar Wind impressed in the Santa Anita Oaks and Lovely Maria in the Ashland.  I think at the wire, the favorite will pull it out.  Watch Ocean Wave to be third and I'm a Chatterbox fourth. 

Stellar Wind

Lovely Maria

Top 10 Kentucky Derbies to Watch

3.

At number three is the 2007 Kentucky Derby featuring Street Sense.  This is the first Derby that I ever watched, and therefore has a special place among my favorite Derbies.  This Derby is great however, because of the call by the legendary, Tom Durkin.  Street Sense was 19th, out of 20 half way through the race, but as the field rounded the far turn, Street Sense rode the rail going from 19th, to first in short order.  He never lost the lead again. 

 



Top 10 Kentucky Derbies to Watch

4.

At number four in the top 10 is the 2004 Kentucky Derby.  Smarty Jones ridden by Stewart Elliott.  In the rain, Lion Heart took the lead into the stretch.  Smarty Jones, undaunted took the lead and pulled away.  Becoming the first undefeated winner of the Kentucky Derby since Seattle Slew. 

 



2015 Kentucky Derby Lineup

Top 10 Kentucky Derbies to Watch

5.

Coming in at number five is the 2009 Kentucky Derby.  This Derby was wide open after I Want Revenge was scratched.  Friesan Fire became the favorite, followed closely by Pioneerof the Nile.  As Tom Durkin called the race, he almost forgot about Mine That Bird.  But the small horse, creeped up the rail to win as a 50-1 shot.  An impossible result. 

 



Top 10 Kentucky Derbies to Watch

6.

Coming in at number six is the 2006 Kentucky Derby.  Barbaro, the undefeated three year old, was near the top in betting.  Sweetnorthernsaint got the edge as the favorite, but it was apparent that it should have been Barbaro.  He flew off the turn, running away with the roses.  He saved something left for the Preakness, but, unfortunately, was never able t race, breaking his leg just seconds out of the starting gate.  Many people, including me, think that he would have won the Triple Crown that year. 

 



To 10 Kentucky Derbies to Watch

7.

Coming in at number 7, is the 2002 Kentucky Derby.  Coming into the Derby, it was unclear who the true favorite was.  Officially, it was Harlan's Holiday.  As the race started, War Emblem, trained by Bob Baffert seized control of the lead.  He would never relinquish it.  The field pressed him as they entered the stretch, but War Emblem responded and pulled away to win the Derby. 

 

 



Top 10 Kentucky Derbies to Watch

8.

At number eight on my list is the 2010 Kentucky Derby.  This Derby has such a good look to it.  Hours after poring rain, the skies clear so the track glistens.  Tom Durkin, in his last Derby call ever, has one of my favorite calls.  Super Saver, and Calvin Borel, ride the rail and pull of an upset in the 136th Run for the Roses. 

 

 

Top 10 Kentucky Derbies to Watch

9.

The 2012 Kentucky Derby was the most dramatic in recent memory.  It featured two favorites in Bodemeister and Union Rags.  However, Union Rags started poorly, and Bodemeister started too fast.  Posting a blistering half mile in 45.2 seconds.  As they came into the stretch, Bodemeister had a five length lead, until I'll Have Another took aim and ran him down at the finish line. 

 

 



Top 10 Kentucky Derbies to Watch

Today I am starting my list of the top 10 Kentucky Derbies to watch, in preparation for the Kentucky Derby now only ten days away.  These videos are judged based on historic significance, the commentary, and the drama of the race itself.  I also take into account video quality which is why most Derbies on this list will be from the 2000's.  Enjoy

 

10.

At number 10, I have chosen the 1997 Kentucky Derby.  I really enjoy the call of this race by Dave Johnson.  I also like this one because of the tight finish between Silver Charm and Captain Bodgit.  One of my favorite stretch runs in all of Derby history. 

 







One Lucky Dane Scratched

On Saturday morning, One Lucky Dane was pulled up after breezing five-eights of a mile in 59.2 seconds at Santa Anita.  One Lucky Dane was trainer Bob Baffert's third horse set to run on May 2, but he will have to settle with the Derby's two favorites, Dortmund and American Pharoah.  One Lucky Dane will need surgery to repair a condylar leg fracture.  Of course this will rule him out officially for the Run for the Roses, now less than two weeks away.  Taking his place, could be another colt sired by Lookin' at Lucky, the same stallion who sired One Lucky Dane.  Madefromlucky, trained by Todd Pletcher.  Madefromlucky, got fourth in the Arkansas Derby, gaining ten points to move him into the Derby picture.  If not Madefromlucky, perhaps Keen Ice, now ranked 21st could be in the field in twelve days.     

 

 

One Lucky Dane

The Curse of the Zayat

This May, three horses from the Zayat Stables will be competing in the Kentucky Derby.  This is more than in any other year.  The previous record for Zayat Stables was two Derby contenders in 2008 with Z Fortune and Z Humor.  Those horses finished fourteenth and tenth respectively.  Consistently, the Zayat Stables have had Derby contenders, however, none of their horses has ever won the roses.  After three horses finished second in the 2009, 2011, and 2012 Kentucky Derbies.  In 2009, when the favorite, I Want Revenge was scratched, many analysts turned their attention to the Zayat Owned Pioneerof the Nile.  If it were not for a 50-1 no name, Mine That Bird, had not slipped through along the rail, he would have been the winner.  In 2010, the Zayat's once again had a Derby contender, the favorite Eskendereya.  Unfortunately, the Sunday before the race, he was scratched due to a leg injury.  To add insult to injury, literally, the Derby finished in a pitiful 2:04.45 the slowest in 21 years.  In 2011, Nehro went off as the second choice, coming in second to Animal Kingdom.  In 2012, after a runaway win in the Arkansas Derby, Bodemeister was the favorite once again for the Zayat Stables.  He had a five length lead coming into the stretch but sputtered out finishing second to I'll Have Another.  Four years in a row, the stables owned by Ahmed Zayat seemed to have a solid contender and a very good chance to win the Derby.  However, misfortune stuck each and every time.  Does this mean, that this year American Pharoah will not win the Derby, I guess we will have to wait and see.     

My Kentucky Derby Power Ranking Edition I

Top 20
1. American Pharoah-Much the best horse in the Arkansas Derby, winning by eight lengths, seemingly without trying puts him at the top of my list. 
2. Dortmund-Winning easily at the Santa Anita Derby and being undefeated puts him in the two slot.  Good connections and a great stride.
3. Carpe Diem-The winner of the Bluegrass Stakes now on dirt.  Pulled away.  Todd Pletcher, says he is training remarkably makes him a solid contender. 
4. Firing Line-If Dortmund is number two, this horse has to make the top five.  Losing by just a head in the Robert Lewis to Dortmund, as well as a record time and 15 length victory in the Sunland Derby makes him an undervalued horse. 
5. Materiality-The other half of Pletcher's one, two punch, Materiality is undefeated in all three races, including the Florida Derby. 
6. Mubtaahij-The winner of the UAE Derby, has good connections, and will not have trouble with the distance. 
7. International Star-Son of Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus.  Was very good at Fair Grounds in the spring. 
8. Frosted-Pulled away in the Wood Memorial, however that field was disappointing.  Questions remain. 
9. Far Right-Closed well to take second I the Arkansas Derby an won the Southwest in February,  With s many pace horses, he may climb the ladder in the final quarter of a mile. 
10. Upstart-Good horse out of Florida.  Close second in the Florida Derby, got a fever a few weeks ago, we will see if he is one hundred percent in two weeks. 
11. One Lucky Dane-Son of Lookin' at Lucky, the 2010 Kentucky Derby favorite and winner of the Preakness Stakes.  Came in second to Dortmund in the Santa Anita Derby. 
12. El Kabeir-Had a good spring winning the Gotham in March but was a disappointing third in the Wood Memorial. 
13. Danzig Moon-Came in second to Carpe Diem in the Bluegrass, closed adequately. 
14. Itsaknockout-Disappointing in the Florida Derby, only won the Fountain of Youth because Upstart was disqualified. 
15. Tencendur-Ran a great race in the Wood Memorial, exceeded expectations, we will have to see where he goes from there. 
16. Stanford-Ran second to International Star in the Louisiana Derby.  Made the pace and only lost by less than a length.  Good showing.
17. War Story-Came in third in that same Derby.  I still think he has yet to run his best race but he does not have the facts to back that up. 
18. Ocho Ocho Ocho-Good showing in the Delta Downs Jackpot, disappointing in the San Felipe finishing eights, came back finished third in the Bluegrass. 
19. Bolo-Rather worse showing in the Santa Anita Derby, just enough points to get to Churchill Downs.   
20. Mr. Z-Just one for twelve in his career, kept trying to get enough points, with a third in Arkansas, he got enough so now he's going to Louisville. 

Welcome!

Hello Horse Racing Fans.  My name is Philip Anderson, and I am from Madison, Wisconsin.  I first became infatuated with horse racing, specifically the Triple Crown, in 2011.  My brother and I were surfing channels on a Saturday in May.  We stumbled on the NBC coverage of the Preakness Stakes.  Immediately I was hooked on the Triple Crown.  They are races woven into American tradition.  Each race over a century old.  Races that are only about two minutes long and yet have as much excitement as Super Bowl.  The next day, I watched the last twenty years worth of Triple Crown races.  Each one more tantalizing than the last.  This blog is meant to help people fall in love with horse racing and learn more about this American tradition and unappreciated spectacle.  Posts will be about different trends and observations that I see n the horse racing world.  The blog will be centered around the Triple Crown, and the Breeder's Cup.  These posts, as I mentioned, are trends, not predictions.  I will have some predictions, but for the most part, what you will read about are trends and observations.  Some posts may seem contradictory but that's sometimes what happens.  That's what also make it fun and interesting.  Please feel free to comment and I hope you enjoy.